The Shrine

<div style='font: 10pt ; text-align: left; '>Hey there, I used to post here as Dyne, or Seishirou, or variants of those two a few years back. Just wanted to say hello.

Barret, whats up!

One more thing, I'm not sure if anyone remembers this, but there was a discussion about the NYC lottery number picks turning out to be 911 on some sort of significant aniversry date of the bombings or whatever. Sine pointed out that it seemed to be a little fishy and everybody jumped on his ass with probabilities and called him retarded and such. Anyway all you math nerds, Sine was right to be skeptical, it turns out that there are some interesting logical arguments that would have worked way in his favor, if you can believe it. It isn't on the internet so I'll just give a brief description.

It goes back to the cosmological argument for and against the existance of god. For: The requirements needed for our universe to produce conditions for life to evolve are so astronomically improbable to occur together that the fact that that live exists implies that the universe was created along the lines of an ordering priciple, and that ordering principle is the Christian god. Against: Just good luck, universe collapsed and expanded many times before our universe came into existence, multiverse, etc.

As you can see, the cosmological argument for the existence of god isn't very good. But one of the arguments supporting is the one that would have helped Sine. It's called the merchant's thumb principle. A merchant is trying to sell you a piece of silk with a hole in it at a retail price. As the merchant shows you the fabric, he's covering the hole with his thumb. You buy the silk, notice the hole, and return to the merchant to get your money back. The merchant says, "If you look at the situation in terms of probability, I was just as likely to put my thumb anywhere else on the fabric, it just so happens that it was covering up the hole." Its like a poker player getting 5 royal flushes in a row and expecting people not to call him a cheat. The logic goes that probablities may be discarded if there is a rational reason to do so.

There you go Sine, if you remember that far back I hope this makes you feel better. For some reason that's been bugging me when I really shouldn't have given two shits about it.

peace</div>

<div style='font: 10pt verdana; text-align: left; padding: 0% 10% 0% 10%; '><i>"If you look at the situation in terms of probability, I was just as likely to put my thumb anywhere else on the fabric, it just so happens that it was covering up the hole."</i>

Since there are many places on the fabric for the merchant to have placed his thumb, the chances that he just so happened to place his thumb over the part with the hole without realizing is very small. So if that happens, it is very likely that the merchant did it on purpose. So that's what most would assume.

However, I think you might have a fundmental misunderstaning of probabilities. Even if something is extremely unlikely to happen, it still can happen. If there is a one in a billion chance of an event ocurring, or a merchant inadverently having his finger over a hole, and it ocurrs, that doesn't mean the probability was wrong, it just means that a very unlikely event happened.

I still don't understand how this helps Sine's case. He maintained that the loterry numbers 9-1-1 happening was a very unlikely event. Sine was claiming that the lottery number had some sort of deeper significance. It was us "math nerds" who pointed out that it was a 1-in-1000 chance - that is, we shoudln't be surprised if it happens.

And for the record...

<i>The requirements needed for our universe to produce conditions for life to evolve are so astronomically improbable to occur together that the fact that that live exists implies that the universe was created along the lines of an ordering priciple, and that ordering principle is the Christian god.</i>

No one has enough information to defend that argument. First, we don't know how the universe came to have the conditions it does. That's a big unknown. Two, in our universe, some have theorized that given the right conditions, life is <i>inevitable</i>. But we don't know, it could be extremely rare. There's just not enough data to be able to defend those claims.</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '><i>If there is a one in a billion chance of an event occuring, or a merchant inadverently having his finger over a hole, and it occurs, that doesn't mean the probability was wrong, it just means that a very unlikely event happened.</i>

Funny, I was just reading a chapter in that book I was talking about which was referencing the way skeptics argue that "Well, even if it's a one in a billion chance, it still could have happened." What if you have something that is a one in a billion chance occuring OVER AND OVER AGAIN? Is it still just somebody being "lucky", or is there a more rational explanation to it? Even on the other end of the spectrum, creationists use the same arguments to burn evolutionists. ("Well, it's just a theory, so it hasn't been proven yet.") If you put your mind to it, you can find a lame excuse for anything and everything.

And speaking of which, I still want to send that book to you. I'm almost finished with it, and despite the subject matter, I think you would like it. All throughout the book, the man is a true scientist and still remains an agnostic, always questioning the amazing results he gets, always finding ways of locking down any possibility of fraud or deceit (and creating tighter and tighter experiments that produce the same results). So far, I've read about 8-10 experiments he's done, some informal, most of them carefully video/audio-taped, and all of the data freely available.

(Anyway, I'm not going to get into the whole 1-in-1000 argument again...)</div>

<div style='font: 10pt verdana; text-align: left; padding: 0% 10% 0% 10%; '><i>What if you have something that is a one in a billion chance occuring OVER AND OVER AGAIN?</i>

Then you should be suspect about whether your proabilities are correct. Or if your experiment is not controlled properly.

<i>Even on the other end of the spectrum, creationists use the same arguments to burn evolutionists. ("Well, it's just a theory, so it hasn't been proven yet.")</i>

I'm not sure what you're getting at. The "It's just a theory" line of thought demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of science. Scientific theories can not be proved correct, they can only be proved false, or reasonabley agree with data from experiments.

<i>All throughout the book, the man is a true scientist and still remains an agnostic, always questioning the amazing results he gets, always finding ways of locking down any possibility of fraud or deceit (and creating tighter and tighter experiments that produce the same results).</i>

I highly doubt that, but I'll soon see for myself. I move down on Monday, it's probably okay to send it now.</div>

<div style='font: 12pt ; text-align: left; '>Yeah, I remember you. And if it was just one little lottery that had a chance of between 1 and 1000, chances are there could have been another thousand lotteries like that, or more. Either way, the only lottery that matters is 6 numbers (rather than 3) anyways.</div>

<div style='font: 12pt "Cooper Black"; text-align: left; '>hmm, i must have missed that topic. Tis a shame, sounds like it was full of fun (not being srcastic). Whats better than science, math, and religion all wrapped up in one package?</div>

<div style='font: 12pt ; text-align: left; '>Science and Philosophy of course.</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '>Okay, I sent it off.</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '>And if the numbers popped out as 09-11-20-01-08-46, would it be more than strange or just a coincidence?</div>

<div style='font: 10pt verdana; text-align: left; padding: 0% 10% 0% 10%; '>The next time you see a license plate, think "Wow, ACJ-6781! There was a 1 in 175760000 chance I'd see that license plate! I'm a lucky guy!"</div>

<div style='font: 9pt ; text-align: left; '>I remember that......nice to see you back, BTW. Since I can't post a new thread right now, I'll put my message here: I'm going on my honeymoon tonight and won't be back 'til Sept 1 around 5pm. Going to Puerto Plata. See you guys then!</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '>But there's nothing special about that license plate. You factor in variables as a group, not as seperate entities.</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '>Oh, I guess nobody tells the guy who really needs to know about bugs like this?</div>

<div style='font: 10pt verdana; text-align: left; padding: 0% 10% 0% 10%; '>There's nothing special about 9-1-1, either. It's just a number. You've attributed the meaning to it; the meaning is not inherent in the number.</div>

<div style='font: italic bold 14pt ; text-align: center; '>thank for restarting the argument again you fool......It's good to see you again</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '>It wouldn't be news if it was "just a number".</div>

<div style='font: 10pt verdana; text-align: left; padding: 0% 10% 0% 10%; '>That's due to meaning others attributed to it.</div>

<div style='font: 10pt ; text-align: left; '>Well, as you guessed, I don't understand a lot of math anymore since High School, so I disregard it like any other bastard would.  I don't care much for the cosmological argument myself, I just thought I had to say if for the sake of the argument (cuz I'm a bastard)</div>

<div style='font: 10pt "EngraversGothic BT", "Copperplate Gothic Light", "Century Gothic"; text-align: left; '>It could have been fixed, but you weren't even willing to believe that, and just siting that it was not even unusual.</div>

<div style='font: 10pt verdana; text-align: left; padding: 0% 10% 0% 10%; '>You don't know what I'm willing to believe. My arguments were in direct response to your beleif that it had some deep meaning.</div>