Football time management

[Don]

This article sounds like something that can directly come out of Eyeshield 21:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/ ... Management

Now I'm not a big football fan and I know everyone does armchair quarterback a lot, but it sounds like most of what's suggested in this article is only possible if you already knew the outcome of the game. Sort of like how Hiruma in ES21 pushed Shin into the endzone while up by 6 instead of trying to stop him because he already knows they will get the ball back with 1 second left and score on a touchdown from the kickoff. I mean yeah clock management is very easy if you can see into the future, but in that case you probably don't need much help, either.

On another note, I ran across an article describing the A-10 formation (I think?) which involves multiple quarterbacks and a ton of receivers, and that reads suspiciously like the Hiryu Formation from ES21. And all along I thought ES21 just made all its stuff up, though the article says A-10 formation is used by pathetic teams that had no chance at the running game and/or offensive line so they've to resort to such gimmicks that stand little chance of working, but since they got no chance already they're not losing much.

[Kupek]

It sounds reasonable to me. Football is a strategically complex game, and time is an important part of it. Ignore it and you will lose. A lot of what they talked about were basic principles for what's the most likely (not guaranteed) best thing to do in a given situation.

I think you're talking about the A-11 Offense: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-11_offense

It's not legal in the NFL, but even if it was I bet it wouldn't be effective. NFL lineman are so fast and strong - even compared to college players - that if the offensive line was reduced that much the defensive line would probably crush the quarterback every play.

[Don]

I mean sure you can say the basic principle is use more time when you're ahead and less when you're behind. Of course even that's simplifying too much because it doensn't get into say whether playing a different tempo has a penalty (i.e. running uses more time but what if your team is no good at running?) But the cases used seems to basically require prescience. It'd be stuff like 'team A lost because team B scored a touchdown on their last drive which took 1minute. If team A used 1 more minute throughout the first 3 quarter, then team B would never had that one minute to score.' Well that's just crazy talk because you can't predict the future like that. The only guy who can do this is Hiruma in Eyeshield 21 because he already knows the outcome of every game before they're even played!

As for the A11, yeah that's what I was thinking of. It appears to be an offense you run while your offensive line/rush is grossly overmatched? Kind of funny how the real world perspective is rather different from the fictional one. In ES21 the team that runs the Hiryu formation has the best people in every position.

[Flip]

Really cool article. Much more in depth and thought out than the usual ESPN garbage. I agree with you that hindsight is 20/20. The Patriots needed to kill more time while building their lead!? That seems far fetched, how can you anticipate how the game will unfold when you are scoring TDs to go up 7-3? Sometimes it is pretty obvious that coaches waste timeouts and time, but we are talking about insane pressure and decision making that none of us ever need to really have to do. I give them a little wiggle room. Although, it does seem like college basketball coaches do an amazing job with time management.

[Don]

I remember one time I saw Lebron passed for a 3 in a game over a very high probability 2 where they're behind 2 on the road, and some people claim mathematically it was better to do that. Now obviously you can't say what would've happened if he went for the 2, but those kind of analysis are at least interesting. What's not interesting is saying 'well if Lebron didn't miss the two free throws he usally didn't miss in the first quarter he would could have gone for the sure 2 and then they'd have won!'