What is the chance of losing a game where you have a 50% of winning each round, 5 rounds in a row?
PostPosted:Tue Dec 07, 2004 3:47 pm
<div style='font: 10pt Tahoma; text-align: left; '>I ask because of this, i recently (for fun) started a sports gambling account on some betting website where i could put 5-10 dollars down on a football game. It has been fun and makes watching the games pretty exciting even when we are only talking about 5 bucks. For the last few week i've turned my 20 dollar initial deposit into 30 ^_^
Today, i noticed on the site that they also have a video craps game that lets you bet with your money. When you bet on the pass line, winning at craps is basicaly 50%, or maybe more like 47,48% since the house always has a slight advatange. Anyways, my system has been to put 1 dollar on the pass line, if i lose i'll put $2, if i lose that i'll put $4, then $8 then $16. That means i would have to lose 5 in a row to lose all my money, but if at any time i win one of those i have, essentially, won $1 to my total and i start back over at betting $1. So far, i've creeped up to $40, this system really seems to works. In fact, i havent even gotten to the 5th game yet before starting over at $1, so the most in a row i have lost so far is 3 before i win, increase my total by $1 and start back over.
This leads me to believe that is someone started with say $1,023 to where they could double their bets for 10 times, would they ever lose? How can you possibly lose a game 10 times in a row when you have a 50% chance of winning? If that is the case then you could creep that $1,000 up slowly by a dollar for an unlimited amount of times. It would take a while, but you could win a few hundred eventually, i think.
It has been looking like this:
started with: 30
bet 1: lose: 29
bet 2: lose: 27
bet 4: win: 31
bet 1: win: 32
bet 1: lose: 31
bet 2: win: 33
bet 1: lose: 32
bet 2: lose: 30
bet 4: win: 34
etc...
I've cracked vegas! ^_^</div>
Today, i noticed on the site that they also have a video craps game that lets you bet with your money. When you bet on the pass line, winning at craps is basicaly 50%, or maybe more like 47,48% since the house always has a slight advatange. Anyways, my system has been to put 1 dollar on the pass line, if i lose i'll put $2, if i lose that i'll put $4, then $8 then $16. That means i would have to lose 5 in a row to lose all my money, but if at any time i win one of those i have, essentially, won $1 to my total and i start back over at betting $1. So far, i've creeped up to $40, this system really seems to works. In fact, i havent even gotten to the 5th game yet before starting over at $1, so the most in a row i have lost so far is 3 before i win, increase my total by $1 and start back over.
This leads me to believe that is someone started with say $1,023 to where they could double their bets for 10 times, would they ever lose? How can you possibly lose a game 10 times in a row when you have a 50% chance of winning? If that is the case then you could creep that $1,000 up slowly by a dollar for an unlimited amount of times. It would take a while, but you could win a few hundred eventually, i think.
It has been looking like this:
started with: 30
bet 1: lose: 29
bet 2: lose: 27
bet 4: win: 31
bet 1: win: 32
bet 1: lose: 31
bet 2: win: 33
bet 1: lose: 32
bet 2: lose: 30
bet 4: win: 34
etc...
I've cracked vegas! ^_^</div>