The Shrine

SineSwiper wrote:If it's true, I think it's a good move. There's 3 major consoles, and it doesn't seem like any of them are clear losers (like the Dreamcast, Saturn, Genesis, etc.), though so far, there's a clear winner right now (360). With the price of consoles going drastically up, there's no real reason why people should be forced to buy multiple consoles to play all of the "must-have" games.

I don't see a clear winner at all tbh.

The X-Box 360 is doing nicely here.

The X-Box 360 and PS3 are tanking hard in Japan.

The Wii is killing them both in Japan/US.

The PS3 is doing horribley everywhere.

Eric wrote:The Wii is killing them both in Japan/US.

The Wii isn't exactly killing in the US. Unfortunately, the best Wii game out there seems to be the ones that come with the system.

And Japan. Well, the entire country of Japan is a bunch of Nintendo fanboys. Nothing is going to change that, short of the Nintendo filing Chapter 11.

Just look at the latest sale figures in Japan. Super Paper Mario is probably well deserved, but the rest of the games seem to be fanboy buyouts: Wii Sports, Wii Play, Big Brain Academy, and One Piece (??!). Puzzle games, mini games, and anime games. Nobody in the US would buy that crap because it's crap.

Meanwhile, the Japanese buy literally every DS game known to man. I know why the DS has so many fucking puzzle games: it's because the Japanese LOVE puzzle games, and they are trying to steal as much money from them as they can. So, this means that the US is stuck with a bunch of puzzle games to throw away.

SineSwiper wrote:If it's true, I think it's a good move. There's 3 major consoles, and it doesn't seem like any of them are clear losers (like the Dreamcast, Saturn, Genesis, etc.), though so far, there's a clear winner right now (360). With the price of consoles going drastically up, there's no real reason why people should be forced to buy multiple consoles to play all of the "must-have" games.

Genesis was #1 for nearly its entire lifecycle (1989-1995) and it was #1 for 4 and a half years of that.

As for consoles, I wouldn't exactly call the Xbox 360 or PS3 winners, I sincerely doubt either 360 or PS3 will be as successful as a loser like the Genesis =P

North America:
April 2007
NDS - 471,000
Wii - 360,000
PS2 - 194,000
PSP - 183,000
360 - 174,000
GBA - 84,000
PS3 - 82,000

Japan:
April 2007
NDS - 847,000
Wii - 358,000
PSP - 123,000
PS2 - 52,000
PS3 - 49,000
360 - 12,000

Total:
April 2007
NDS - 1,318,000
Wii - 718,000
PSP - 306,000
PS2 - 246,000
Xbox 360 - 186,000
PS3 - 131,000

SineSwiper wrote:

Eric wrote:The Wii is killing them both in Japan/US.

The Wii isn't exactly killing in the US.

Yes it is:

Hardware:
DS - 471,000
Wii - 360,000
Xbox 360 + PS3 combined - 256,000

Top Software (by Units)
1. NDS Pokemon Diamond - 1,045,000
2. NDS Pokemon Pearl - 712,000
3. Wii Super Paper Mario - 352,000
4. Wii Play - 249,000
5. 360 Guitar Hero 2 - 197,000
6. PS2 Guitar Hero 2 - 142,000
7. 360 Spider-Man 3 - 117,000
8. PS2 Spider-Man 3 - 105,000
9. PS2 God of War II - 101,000
10. PS2 MLB '07: The Show - 79,000
11. Wii Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
12. NDS New Super Mario Bros.
13. 360 Major League Baseball 2K7
14. NDS Spectrobes
15. 360 Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2
16. PS2 God of War
17. Wii Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 - 53,000
18. 360 Gears of War
19. NDS Diddy Kong Racing
20. NDS Mario Kart

The Seeker wrote:Yes it is:

What's the source? US or world figures?

SineSwiper wrote:

Eric wrote:The Wii is killing them both in Japan/US.

The Wii isn't exactly killing in the US. Unfortunately, the best Wii game out there seems to be the ones that come with the system.

And Japan. Well, the entire country of Japan is a bunch of Nintendo fanboys. Nothing is going to change that, short of the Nintendo filing Chapter 11.

Just look at the latest sale figures in Japan. Super Paper Mario is probably well deserved, but the rest of the games seem to be fanboy buyouts: Wii Sports, Wii Play, Big Brain Academy, and One Piece (??!). Puzzle games, mini games, and anime games. Nobody in the US would buy that crap because it's crap.

Meanwhile, the Japanese buy literally every DS game known to man. I know why the DS has so many fucking puzzle games: it's because the Japanese LOVE puzzle games, and they are trying to steal as much money from them as they can. So, this means that the US is stuck with a bunch of puzzle games to throw away.

Nintendo has something on the order of $7B US in liquid cash and cash equivalents. Considering they make money off each DS and Wii system sold, they're only adding to that insane cash position. They could lose money for the next 10 years and barely make a dent in just the cash they have.

Wii Play is selling extremely well here. It's the extra controller. You're basically getting a $15 game, it's hard to pass up. We'll see how Big Brain Academy sells here. Brain Training is still selling very well for cryin' out loud.

And don't dis my puzzle games, they're awesome. I'm still lookin' for Puzzle Quest used and my addiction of Tetris Attack is on the horizon with the release of Planet Puzzle League. But on top of that, you have FF3, that new Atlus RPG, Mario and Luigi, Castlevania......tons of other stuff. The diversity is amazing. Sure the Japs are nuts on the puzzle games, but there's everything for that system.

The Wii is pounding them both right now in sales across the world. If you would really like me to pull out the sales from November to April in North America, I can try, but it's been all over the sites. The NPD monthly reports are regularly summarized. Essentially, the Wii has outsold both the PS3 (almost double) and the 360 (by about 25%) each month since it came out aside from December when they just didn't have any systems (360 beat it then handidly). You can take a look at www.vgcharts.com as well for a quick summary.

And I agree with you that the games haven't been that great, which is why the sales mean even more right now. Sure you have one awesome title (Zelda) and a couple of great titles (Paper Mario and Wario Ware), but their big guns are all coming starting this August. If they're doing this well now, what happens when the two big system movers worldwide (Smash Bros and Mario Galaxy) and one that'll garner a ton of interest and likely move systems here (Metroid) come out? Remember, every Smash Bros and Mario game have been consistent sellers for years on the systems they've come out on. They're not flash in the pan sellers, their life cycle is different. They don't just sell like crazy for a few weeks then taper off huge (see Crackdown).

Add to that the insane success of the DS (it's actually increasing in popularity as times goes on; it's still a little scarce to find even now in both the US and Japan) and Nintendo's almost guaranteed to have an awesome year financially. I tried to convince my uncle to buy Nintendo's shares last year after E3 but did he listen? Nooo...... (FYI, their shares have about doubled in their 2007 fiscal year; April 06 to March 07).

I love my 360, for a $205 Cdn system it's been great and there are a bunch of great games on it now. But $500 is way too much for any system IMO. And I really would recommend any gamer to get the 360/Wii combo right now (if money's not an issue) as it's easily the best setup to have. You'll get 99% of the games you'll want to play that way.

The reality is, by the end of the year, what you'll likely see on a worldwide scale is the Wii being within about a million units of the 360 and it'll probably pass it within the first 4 months of 2008. And the only reason I say it won't catch it in 2007 is 'cause the ultimate system seller in Halo 3 is coming. That's their Mario. The original Halo and Halo 2 had Mario 64-like life-cycles and system moving ability. That'll move a couple million units of the 360 this year alone in the US, which should stave off the Wii catch-up. Well, that and Bioshock, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed, etc. 360's gonna have a great Xmas, it's major guns are coming out.

Add to that the likely shortages the Wii's gonna have unless Nintendo has an about-face and actually opens up another Wii manufacturing plant. I think they're near or at max production now and their demand is expected to rise. As if it's not hard enough to find a Wii now, I think you'll be able to make a killing on one on Ebay this winter.

SineSwiper wrote:

The Seeker wrote:Yes it is:

What's the source? US or world figures?

Those were US figures. Like I said my novel of a post above, NPD figures are reported monthly and are all over the major sites in the first 10 days of each month.

North America is Xbox 360's top playing field, ~2/3rds of the systems have sold in this market. Of course, the DS is by far the top system here in North America, but the Japanese and European markets are its #1 and #2 markets respectively. The Wii will pass the 360 much sooner than you think. I'm going to say by the end of the summer.

I was unaware the DS was doing That well...geez I picked up a Lite the week it came out and I haven't used it much since (stares at it sitting on top of his desk)...never quite got huge into it even with 10 games, but then again I guess I'm not huge into portable gaming.

I like the idea of a Wii/360 combo, but even then for me buying 2 consoles seems expensive. I'm almost afraid to claim that Wii's tremendous sales are more from the average person picking it up as a novel new tech gadget and watching it collect dust on top of their DVD player 4 or so months later...

In other words, we're assuming that Nintendo found a way to turn most non-gamers into gamers...I think it appeals to a broader market but their sales are still going to depend on people actively going out and regularly buying new games for it...and I don't see that happening with the casual non-gamer who likes to play Wii Tennis with some friends every now and then. At least with the 360 you know every one is a gamer and will act as such.

Well, let me put it to you this way: what games are YOU going to buy for the Wii? The Wii has a great price, which is why they are really doing well for sales, but frankly, their game selection is something left to be desired.

The big games aren't all going to come out in August, either. There's going to be delays and some might end up going past Christmas. Meanwhile, the 360 already has a shitton of games lined up for this summer, to add to their catalog of must-haves that they already have. The PS3 has absolutely nothing. The Wii really has a lot of catching up to do.

Of course, it's probably going to end up being a bunch of first-party titles, as usual, just like the GameCube and N64. (GameCube had Capcom, but that was about it.)

This year is the first-party stuff for Wii, no doubt about it. They had to prove themselves to the rest of the publishers save Ubisoft and EA (and Activision a bit) before there was serious resources put to it. That's why it's still so Nintendo-heavy. But you're seeing a lot of third parties shifting now, particularly with the PS3 getting ass-handed early on, so 2008 should see a lot of strong titles from third parties.

In the meantime, by the end of the year (they've all but confirmed it now), you'll have to make due with Zelda, Wario Ware, Super Paper Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Galaxy, and Metroid. That's not too shabby for the first year and excellent for Nintendo, which is much slower than that. And it's probably enough to convince most people on the fence that the system, especially at the price point it's at and with Wii Sports, which is a lot more fun than you'd think, is worth the pick up.

I'm looking forward to the Wii versions of Scarface and RE4 coming out in a week and a half.

The Seeker wrote:I'm looking forward to the Wii versions of Scarface and RE4 coming out in a week and a half.

Scarface got a 4/5 on X-Play. The port for PoPersia (2 outta 5) had horrible controls, though.

Zeus wrote:In the meantime, by the end of the year (they've all but confirmed it now), you'll have to make due with Zelda, Wario Ware, Super Paper Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Galaxy, and Metroid. That's not too shabby for the first year and excellent for Nintendo, which is much slower than that. And it's probably enough to convince most people on the fence that the system, especially at the price point it's at and with Wii Sports, which is a lot more fun than you'd think, is worth the pick up.

Man, that's just a lot of first-party stuff, though. Not to say that Nintendo doesn't make a lot of good games, but it's really putting your eggs in one basket. I really wish Nintendo would quit trying to hold up their systems all by themselves. (N64 anybody?) Sometimes, I want to play a game that is non-Nintendo-esque. (Metriod's about the only series that gets out of its usual Nintendo Y7 mode.)

SineSwiper wrote:

The Seeker wrote:I'm looking forward to the Wii versions of Scarface and RE4 coming out in a week and a half.

Scarface got a 4/5 on X-Play. The port for PoPersia (2 outta 5) had horrible controls, though.

Yeah, Prince of Persia was one of Ubisoft's rush jobs; they apologized for those in their most recent press release and said the future is going to see much higher quality software. The beauty of the Wii version of Resident Evil 4 is that it contains all the best features from the different versions, and has better controls. RE games have never had great controls, though this version of RE4 does according to the reviews.

I really want to try out Godfather, but I haven't seen a copy of it around, it seems to have had a very limited release which is strange.

Metroid is the #3 game from Nintendo I am looking forward to in the next 6 months, Galaxy and Smash are ahead of it. Most of all I am wondering what sort of RPGs we'll be seeing from Monolithsoft now. I am really hoping for a Xenoseries ressurection, perhaps a collaboration with Squaresoft to ressurect the Xenogears name now that they're not rival development houses anymore. I dream =)

SineSwiper wrote:

The Seeker wrote:I'm looking forward to the Wii versions of Scarface and RE4 coming out in a week and a half.

Scarface got a 4/5 on X-Play. The port for PoPersia (2 outta 5) had horrible controls, though.

Zeus wrote:In the meantime, by the end of the year (they've all but confirmed it now), you'll have to make due with Zelda, Wario Ware, Super Paper Mario, Smash Bros, Mario Galaxy, and Metroid. That's not too shabby for the first year and excellent for Nintendo, which is much slower than that. And it's probably enough to convince most people on the fence that the system, especially at the price point it's at and with Wii Sports, which is a lot more fun than you'd think, is worth the pick up.

Man, that's just a lot of first-party stuff, though. Not to say that Nintendo doesn't make a lot of good games, but it's really putting your eggs in one basket. I really wish Nintendo would quit trying to hold up their systems all by themselves. (N64 anybody?) Sometimes, I want to play a game that is non-Nintendo-esque. (Metriod's about the only series that gets out of its usual Nintendo Y7 mode.)

If they're not enough to hold you over 'til next year, get it next year when the rest start coming. The third party stuff is coming, it just took the developers a while to jump on board due to the 'Cube. The PS3s slow sales and insane development costs helped too.

Sine, I don't know if you've been paying attention to Nintendo recently, but all this reaching a broader market talk isn't just talk. Nintendo really does have a different strategy than Microsoft and Sony. I don't know if this strategy will work, but Nintendo is releasing more games for casual gamers: http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159839

I'm with Kupek, I'm not so sure this will necessarily work in the long term. Wii is a hot thing now, but what about in two years? Or next generation? I can see the DS carrying on, portable gaming has always been a different animal. But for Wii2, what are they gonna do?

I don't understand why people always feel compelled to point out Nintendo makes a bizillion amount of money. Unless Nintendo is planning to give me some of that money, it really doesn't influence my game buying habits whatsoever whether they're the wealthiest or the least weathy gaming company in the world.

Likewise I don't know why people are obsessed with Japanese numbers when clearly none of us live in Japan. Nintendo, of all companies, survived the N64 era with basically nothing in Japan, console-wise. I'm not exactly worried about the well-being of Japan even if a lot of software companies are based there. And why such a big deal about Nintendo's casual marketing strategy? Regardless of whether it works or not, I don't see any of you saying how great Brain Age whatever is. I'm willing to bet Pokemon still sells well above the said puzzle games and I don't see any of you playing that either. If you don't play the games, it's not relevant how well they do because you're not playing them.

I keep on see this argument rehashed over and over, that whenever someone here asks what they're going to play on the Wii, we get a list of games that not only the person who asked is likely to never play, but the guy suggesting themselves probably won't ever play.

Personally, Don, I consider Nintendo to be "winning" in some sense here. Microsoft is doing well with the 360 but still has a $4B loss from the original XBox to make up, and the PS3 is looking more and more like an unmitigated disaster that even the Sony spin machine can't P.R. its way out of.

Nintendo's profit margins are rumored to be about five to ten times that of their competitors, and I actually believe that. I'm not even sure what we're arguing about, but one has to postulate that, whatever their sales are, their business model is quite healthy and that they're in a wonderful position to be able to keep making games. Which is, in the end, really what it's all about, in what is a VERY cutthroat and difficult business to survive in. I think Nintendo deserves respect for that - I mean, in the end, sales are worthless without profitability. Healthy margins are very, very respectable in any industry.

I'm sure they make a ton of money, but ultimately how much money Nintendo makes does not influence what other games will be made for their system.

Pokemon is probably the biggest gaming franchise ever if going by pure numbers, and I don't think anyone here actually plays it. It is certainly a brilliant idea, but it's not particularly relevant to the community here. I'm willing to bet that the Dragonball spinoffs have insane profit margins because I honestly can't imagine these games requiring a large budget (they certainly are produced in numbers that suggest it costs next to nothing to make it). In all likelihood they probably beat most games you consider as 'great' in profit margins. This doesn't mean we need to all repent our sins because Dragonball has insane profit margins.

The Los Angeles Clippers have been considered as the laughing stock of NBA while being one of the most profitable NBA teams. The two facts do not preclude each other from being true.

Don Wang wrote:I'm sure they make a ton of money, but ultimately how much money Nintendo makes does not influence what other games will be made for their system.

Absolutely, completely wrong. Do you think people who own development companies are unaware of Nintendo's profitability? Do you think people really want to develop for the PS3 right now given that its market penetration makes profitability a *very* dicey experience?

In the N64 era, some of the Nintendo game still sold a lot and was pretty profitable (e.g. Goldeneye). There sure wasn't much third party support. Are you saying people are so naive that they look at Nintendo and say 'whoa these guys are rich I want to develop for them so I can be like Nintendo?' Even the average fan recognizes that Nintendo has a solidly entrenched fan-base and considerable talents (some may say the best). I'm sure gaming companies are well aware that they're definitely not another Nintendo.

You're confusing with the fact that for once, Nintendo has a console system that actually has significant market share, which is why 3rd party developers started caring about them again. Likewise this is the first time in a long time PS# didn't have over 50% of the market to start with, so of course people are more cautious about commiting to them. How can you go wrong developing for a system that contains 70% of the market, which is what PSX and PS2 had?

If anything, since the number of games people buy per year is roughly fixed, if the first party titles aren't selling very well, that only increases the chance someone will buy something else instead. N64 and Dreamcast both have extremely strong first party sales, and the 3rd party support went nowhere. Sony first party titles have never been very strong at least relative to say, Nintendo. That didn't stop everyone else from wanting to develop for PSX or PS2.

Of course all this is pretty irrelevant since the only determinent for 3rd party is market share. If Nintendo disappeared over night, that wouldn't stop anyone else from trying to develop for DS given its stranglehold on the handheld. If anything, that gives other people more chance to sell their Pokemon clones or whatever.

I'm quite confused. I don't remember saying Nintendo doesn't have significant market share.

Honestly, I can't even tell what you're arguing about.

Zeus wrote:I'm with Kupek, I'm not so sure this will necessarily work in the long term. Wii is a hot thing now, but what about in two years? Or next generation? I can see the DS carrying on, portable gaming has always been a different animal. But for Wii2, what are they gonna do?

Actually, I do think it will work out, but I'm cautious in my phrasing because I have nothing beyond a gut feeling and prejudice to back this up. My main point here is to remind Sine that despite the fact that there are few Nintendo games we're interested in - the hardcore games - that does not necessarily put Nintendo in trouble. They're putting out games, they're just not targeted at us.

Don, we're talking about it because at this point, we're talking about the industry, not just what we want to play.

Sorry, I didn't see this my first time through.

Don Wang wrote:If anything, since the number of games people buy per year is roughly fixed

That's exactly what Nintendo's current strategy is trying to change. We'll find out in a few years if it works.

Don, in order to measure the success of a company overall, and not what you or I want (or a certain "hardcore" segment), you have to look at their financials. At the end of the day, that's all the really matters. So what if they only have 20% market share? If they're making more money than Sony as a whole (during most of the GC) even though Sony has 65% of the market, who's more successful?

We look at the Japanese market 'cause it's the second biggest market right now and, until very recently, by far the best numbers available. Likely won't be by the end of this generation, but they still are a very big share and so many of the big companies have their head offices there, it affects them and what they do.

The fact that we're not talking about the awesomeness of the Wii games other than Zelda and there's been more posts about Guitar Hero or Gears proves that their strategy is working considering they are the best selling system in world since they came out. The "casual" games market is huge, around 80% of the "potential" market, you can't ignore it. That's why you just recently saw both Ubisoft and EA set up separate casual games divisions. You can't talk about the industry as a whole without discussing the effect of the casual market.

Now, that doesn't really help us who are more hardcore gamers, but it does affect what we're going to get. You're still gonna get some hardcore games for the Wii mixed with the casual games, particularly when the userbase is increasing at the rate it is. Remember, a lot of hardcores are buying it too and the PS3 is faltering worldwide, so we're seeing a shift to the Wii. The fraction of the development costs is helping a lot too. You can see this in the DS clearly with DQ9 being moved over. You'll be seeing more and more big franchises and likely smaller RPGs move over as well.

I don't know about everyone else, but I'm buying and playing a lot of the "casual" games. I have Wii Play, will get Big Brain Wii, am gonna get addicted like a bitch to Planet Puzzle League, etc. I'm sure a lot of us play some of these "casual" games and do look forward to them. But also, a lot of the games I pointed out to Sine earlier are "hardcore" games like Smash Bros and Metroid. You are getting the selection now which is why, in conjunction with the price, it's a good purchase.

Nintendo actually had something on the order of 32% market share in the US with the N64. And they had majority on the systems before that. it's only really with the 'Cube they got ass-handed.

Kup, sorry I misread you there, I think I'm more cautious than you. Sure I prefer their stuff personally but I don't think they'll be good in the long run.

Zeus wrote: We look at the Japanese market 'cause it's the second biggest market right now and

I am not quite sure where you get the idea that Japan is the #2 market, it hasn't been the #2 market since the 8-bit generation. Europe and North America are both WAY larger. The reason why the Japanese numbers are discussed is because they are frequently updated. Also, the gaming industry is more important in Japan than it is anywhere else as it has a larger percentage of its population as gamers and most of the best developers in the world are in Japan.

For example: http://psx.ign.com/articles/516/516828p1.html

European sales are about double those of Japan.

Kupek wrote:Sine, I don't know if you've been paying attention to Nintendo recently, but all this reaching a broader market talk isn't just talk. Nintendo really does have a different strategy than Microsoft and Sony. I don't know if this strategy will work, but Nintendo is releasing more games for casual gamers: http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159839

They've been trying to "reach a broader market" for decades with their E for Everyone image. I don't see how Paper Mario or Pokemon or Wario Ware is any different than what they've being putting out. For fuck's sake, it's the same franchise! How is this new?

This is the problem with being a first-party console: they spit out the same franchises year after year, with very little new ideas. Would I be interested in the newest Metriod or Zelda or Mario? Sure, but it totally defeats your argument that they are trying to cater to a "broader audience".

Ideas like Phoenix Wright or Trauma Center, that's trying for a broader audience, but they aren't new (a few years before the Wii), and it's not a Wii idea. (Both DS games, soo....)

I ask again: where's the new shit?

Also, just because the Wii is "going to come out with new stuff soon" doesn't make it the winner. The PS3 has been crowing this tune for a while, and it's not working. Meanwhile, the 360 already has a good lineup of games.

Zeus wrote:Now, that doesn't really help us who are more hardcore gamers, but it does affect what we're going to get. You're still gonna get some hardcore games for the Wii mixed with the casual games, particularly when the userbase is increasing at the rate it is.

Oh great. The "casual gamers" buy Pokemon and Tetris. Are these the type of games you want to invading your consoles? If hardcore means "more complex" and "doesn't suck", then fucking smack those bitches to put in more "hardcore games".

SineSwiper wrote:

Kupek wrote:Sine, I don't know if you've been paying attention to Nintendo recently, but all this reaching a broader market talk isn't just talk. Nintendo really does have a different strategy than Microsoft and Sony. I don't know if this strategy will work, but Nintendo is releasing more games for casual gamers: http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159839

They've been trying to "reach a broader market" for decades with their E for Everyone image. I don't see how Paper Mario or Pokemon or Wario Ware is any different than what they've being putting out. For fuck's sake, it's the same franchise! How is this new?

Just because they have the same name in the title does not mean they are thje same as previous titles. The gameplay of Mario Galaxy will less resemble Mario Brothers than the latest Castlevania does.

Games that are gaining the wider audiences are those that are easily accessible and fun to play; such as Wario Ware Wii, Wii Sports, Wii Play, and other similar titles. It is quite obvious that they are working on getting the Wii Remote in the hands of new gamers judging by the sales. An official userbase of 8 million in 6 months, when it took the Xbox 360 18 months to sell 9.5 million.

With Wiis cheaper development costs, more advanced control system, and high popularity, it is fairly obvious where the developers are going to go this generation.

Yes the Wii is not entirely original, it is following the DS's strategy, and so far it is working just as everyone expected (except those dumb industry analysts who thought PS3 would sell 100M+ units =P).

Sine, read the analysis on videogame sites. It's out there, I'm not just making this up. (What I linked to is a great start. Hint. Hint.)

SineSwiper wrote:Also, just because the Wii is "going to come out with new stuff soon" doesn't make it the winner. The PS3 has been crowing this tune for a while, and it's not working. Meanwhile, the 360 already has a good lineup of games.

Zeus wrote:Now, that doesn't really help us who are more hardcore gamers, but it does affect what we're going to get. You're still gonna get some hardcore games for the Wii mixed with the casual games, particularly when the userbase is increasing at the rate it is.

Oh great. The "casual gamers" buy Pokemon and Tetris. Are these the type of games you want to invading your consoles? If hardcore means "more complex" and "doesn't suck", then fucking smack those bitches to put in more "hardcore games".

"Hardcore" refers to time committment and effort required. So yes, you could say in a way that they are more complex. But are all games that aren't complex bad? Do you hate Tetris or games like it? Puzzle games in general are not very complex. They generally have a simplistic basis that's made deep through use of that simple gameplay rather than complexity.

It's a different mentality. Not everyone wants to spend hours on end playing through a game between save spots. Not everyone want to get engrossed in an RPG. That's the area Nintendo's starting to focus on and where they're starting to actually expand the market.

Like Kup said, this isn't an opinion, it's become fact. That's why they're selling so well, they're bringing in people with the DS and Wii who haven't had games systems for a while or even at all.

Just because the game isn't complex it doesn't mean it sucks and that it's a waste of money. Sometimes you just want a good 30 minute distraction. The Wii's actually great for that, so is the DS.

There aren't really any major games this generation (yet) directed at a hardcore gaming audience aside from Zelda. The other popular games are Gears of War, Wii Sports, and Wii Play, all directed at multiplayer/casual gaming audiences.

There's nothing about multiplayer that makes it less or more 'hardcore' than single player.

I don't particularly care for casual games, but certainly games can be a lot shorter, hardcore or otherwise. There's just no indication whatsoever that longer means better. You take a game like Vagrant Story that's originally intended to be 6 hours or so to beat. They stretch it out to 20 hours and it all it does is make the game longer, not better. They can easily stretch it out to 50 hours too, and that'd just make the game even longer, not better.

Whatever. I'm done arguing. All I'm trying to say is that I'm very disappointed with Wii's launch and its first year in the market. The game selection is abysmal, and all I heard is "but wait, it's going to get better" over and over again. While the concept of the Wii is cool and all, 8 million people are still waiting for shit to come out for the Wii.

Meanwhile, the overly expensive XBox 360 is laying waste in the yes-we-actually-fucking-have-good-games department. I think if Microsoft lowered the price to the same as the Wii when they launched, we would have seen another N64 versus PSX comparison. (IE: no contest)

A console without games is a paperweight. Everybody in the world could have a Wii, but if there's no games for it, it can't be a "winner". It's a damn shame, but it looks like my first next gen console is going to be a 360.

I think if you look at the wii, it is similar to the 360 in terms of games in relation to the relative lifespan of the system. When it was 7 months in, how many great games did the 360 have out? I remember the only good games out for it were GRAW and Oblivion. I could be off and there could be a couple more great games out at the time, but I'm pretty sure the 360 didn't start getting its legs until a year in, when November hit again. I'm sure both the ps3 and the wii will have a similar run, I just don't think it's fair to compare the game selection of the wii and the ps3 with the 360 which has had that extra year head start. The dreamcast had a solid library out before the ps2, xbox and gamecube came out too, and it must have looked like a shining system in comparison as well. It's not really fair to compare that situation to the present one, but I think it still properly relays my point.

SineSwiper wrote:Whatever. I'm done arguing. All I'm trying to say is that I'm very disappointed with Wii's launch and its first year in the market. The game selection is abysmal, and all I heard is "but wait, it's going to get better" over and over again. While the concept of the Wii is cool and all, 8 million people are still waiting for shit to come out for the Wii.

Meanwhile, the overly expensive XBox 360 is laying waste in the yes-we-actually-fucking-have-good-games department. I think if Microsoft lowered the price to the same as the Wii when they launched, we would have seen another N64 versus PSX comparison. (IE: no contest)

A console without games is a paperweight. Everybody in the world could have a Wii, but if there's no games for it, it can't be a "winner". It's a damn shame, but it looks like my first next gen console is going to be a 360.

I agree with you in concept, particularly about the games meaning everything, but you're forgetting that the 360 had nothing but Jack and Shit for the first year aside from Oblivion....and Jack was on vacation. A year later, yes, it has a decent lineup... AFTER Gears and Rainbow Six come out. But the Wii's launch was still better.

The Wii's still impossible to find, so there's no one waiting for the games to get better. That's the casual effect for you. They're kinda like the iPoD crowd for the Wii, that's why the popularity is so strong for so long.

The 360 has not dropped in price yet. In fact, there's an article right now at Next Gen (www.next-gen.biz) predicting when that'll happen. What they did was release the Elite at a higher price and give the illusion of a drop with the other two models being cheaper. You'll probably see one AFTER the Halo 3 launch, there's no reason for it to happen before then unless the PS3 makes a very quick recovery.

Maybe your first next gen console should be a 360. From what I've known about your gaming habits over the years posting here, it's probably better suited for you anyways. It's just twice as expensive as the Wii. And don't bother getting the Core system, it's easily worth the extra coin for the Premium. The Elite really isn't IMO.

PS3 sold 45K units in Japan last month, down from 49K in April.

As for the Xbox 360 line-up, I suppose I'd probably be interested in it if it had more than a handful of games I'd be interested in (Assassin's Creed, Banjo Kazooie 3, and Blue Dragon) and that I didn't already have a load of DS/Wii games to choose from in the next 6 months (including: Phantom Hourglass, Scarface, RE4, Smash: Brawl, Mario Galaxy, Final Fantasy 4 DS, Dragon Quest 9, Heroes of Mana, Assassin's Creed, Phoenix Wright 3, Space Station Tycoon, Disaster: Day of Crisis, Fire Emblem: Goddess of Dawn, etc.). I suppose if you are into games about Space Marines and witches, then 360 is the way to go, it has a lot of those.

On a price-cut, I wouldn't bet on it, Xbox 360 lost Microsoft 289 million dollars fall quarter 2006 and another 315 million winter quarter 2007.


If third parties sell more games on Wii then it is the system they are going to develop for; especially considering (as Namco stated) games for Wii cost a third as much in resources to develop for. With cheaper costs, and a more advanced form of control, it is much easier to develop innovative software for the Wii.:
1) If it flops, it is not going to cause nearly as large of a dent in the company's financials.
2) There are many different methods of control that can be used on the system that are widely available (Xbox 360 has 1, PS3 has 2) which allows many more options for the developers to explore.

So as far as userbase and software goes, I don't expect the 360 to exceed the first Xbox. If you liked the first Xbox, then you probably should buy the second.

You should buy the 360 'cause it has solid games on it.

I would be surprised if it doesn't exceed the userbase of the first. What did the first hit, 25 million units? This one's at 10+ already without a price drop

Plus XBox Live really does kick the crap out of its competition, online-wise.

I've been really happy with my 360 so far. I don't even end up playing next-gen stuff that much, but Live is a great service. Been getting Reno 911 episodes off Live, they download wonderfully, are high-resolution, and that show is just awesome.

Zeus wrote:You should buy the 360 'cause it has solid games on it.

I would be surprised if it doesn't exceed the userbase of the first. What did the first hit, 25 million units? This one's at 10+ already without a price drop

What do you mean "already?" It's been 18 months! =P

Nev wrote:Plus XBox Live really does kick the crap out of its competition, online-wise.

I've been really happy with my 360 so far. I don't even end up playing next-gen stuff that much, but Live is a great service. Been getting Reno 911 episodes off Live, they download wonderfully, are high-resolution, and that show is just awesome.

Live does beat the snot out of WiiConnect. I haven't tried PSNetwork yet so I can't say anything.

I never understood why anyone with a high-speed connection would pay for an episode when you can get the same thing for free off the Internet then use the streaming ability of the 360 to play it on your TV.

Seek, it's already at around 11 mil, which is almost half the userbase, in 18 months; and that's without a price drop. Figure a 5 year life cycle and the effect of a price cut (see the great article at Next Gen right now: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?optio ... &Itemid=50), and it would really be a shock if it didn't surpass the original Xbox. That one year head start helped big time

Sine likes making me start new threads! =o

Zeus wrote:Seek, it's already at around 11 mil, which is almost half the userbase, in 18 months; and that's without a price drop. Figure a 5 year life cycle and the effect of a price cut (see the great article at Next Gen right now: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?optio ... &Itemid=50), and it would really be a shock if it didn't surpass the original Xbox. That one year head start helped big time

Where are you getting this "11 million" number from when the system hadn't even shipped 11 million by April according to Microsoft? (10.4 until the end of last year, with an additional 500K this year so far)

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14940
4.5 million units sold by December 31st

NPD sales:

January: 294,000
February: 228,000
March: 199,000
April: 174,000

Put total sales at 5.4 million in North America

Where are these 5.6 million other Xbox 360 sales coming from? The UK? It certainly isn't moving any significant number of units anywhere else =P

After analyzing the numbers, Xbox 360 has sold ~8 million units worldwide. It took 18 months to achieve this.


Just a note, here are the Xbox 360 shipments broken down to January 1st 2007:
NA - 6 million
Japan - 1.3 million
Euro - 3.1 million
Worldwide - 10.4 million

Sales in North America = 5.4 million
Sales in Japan = 330K
Additional shipments for 2007 = 500K
Europe = less than 3.1 million


Breaking it all down:

It is a fact that Xbox 360 certainly is not sold out in Europe, 4.5 million sold as of December 31st in North America where 6 million were shipped give it about a 75% rate of sales. 75% of 3.1 million would be approximately 2.3 million (and I am being generous, because the system is actually popular in North America, but not in Europe, it is just as likely that the % is somewhere between Japan and the US, around 50%. Microsoft initially shipped 1 million units to Japan and it just isn't selling there). 2.3 million + 5.4 million + 0.3 million = aproximately 8 million Xbox 360's sold worldwide. At the very maximum, 9.3 million Xbox 360's have sold, and it is highly unlikely that Europe received all 500K shipments and completely sold out given that the system isn't popular there. It is more probable that most of the 500K shipped went to locations throughout the US.


Public online sources which also confirm these numbers and my above numbers:
personal.lse.ac.uk/vanderga/valvelabor.pdf
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3159628
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ ... 8/d10q.htm

XBox 360 US/Japan = 5.4M/330K (or 16:1 ratio)
Wii US/Japan = 2.5M/2.0M (close to a 1:1 ratio)

Slightly offtopic, but I think the difference between the Japanese and US markets in those sales just shows the vast difference with the two cultures. Or rather, how out of touch with reality they are.

For example, why do the Japanese HATE first-person shooters? I mean, it's almost unnatural how much they hate FPSs. I can imagine certain people who like or don't like certain types of games, but Japan, as a whole, just will not buy a FPS.

Meanwhile, we in the States don't really care what type of game it is. We buy FPSs, RTSs, RPGs, sports, puzzles, and anything Japan will throw at us. If we can tolerate a game like Katamari Damacy, why the hell can't Japan try out some of our stuff?

Japanese stuff, as a general rule, has to be *wholesome*. The underlying message of any game is almost universally positive. This is why a game like GTA will never do well in Japan, because the game's tone is clearly negative. This is also why Death Note isn't very well received in Japan and banned from broadcasting in China, because it's a story about a psychotic killer killing people and, for quite a while, getting away with it. FPS in general has no positive underlying message, since game makers don't pretend Quake or Doom is supposed to teach you a lesson about the rights and wrongs of life.

You mean like that witch-touching game. Or "Battle Raper."

Or maybe that arcade game where you're supposed to pretend you're sticking a giant finger in somebody's butt!

The only source I can find is VGCharts, which says 10.4M SOLD worldwide by the end of 2006 (http://www.vgcharts.com/page2.html). Don't know how accurate it is, but it doesn't sound too unreasonable, although I always wonder about the sold vs shipped figures Microshaft and Sony trumpet (this figure was repeated by a Microsoft spokesman in an interview: http://www.gamersquad.com/category/Xbox ... 360-sales/). It may be the shipped figure they're using, but it's not like the retailers are swimming in 360s (my bud's EB has had more PS3s on shelves than 360s for months). This is also substantiated by the notes to the financial statements you put below as they claim just under 11 million shipped worldwide (10.8M as per Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360#Sales) by the end of March 2007 (leads me further to believe the 10.4M is shipped and not sold through). So I was off by a million or so and it's closer to 10M rather than 11M.

Regardless if it's 8 or 10 million, the 360 has done much better than the first one and without a price drop. Yes, the year-long head-start helped a lot, but don't forget, Halo 3 ain't out yet (not to mention GTA4 and other big titles) and it's still pushing 200k+ units per month since December in the US alone. It shouldn't have TOO much trouble passing the Xbox's worldwide sales, especially considering the sales spike huge once a system hits the magical $200 US/$300 Cdn barrier. (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?optio ... &Itemid=50).

The 18+ stuff are clearly labeled as such. The Japanese culture does not mind sex compared to violence in the case of the 'dating sim' category of games. Note that there is also no 18+ games on any of the consoles, ever. The witch hunting game is not 18+.

Check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsutomu_Miyazaki, the person/event that has a significant affect to the type of stuff you see from Japan.