No real winner or loser in the next-gen race?

[Zeus]

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6159034.html

I kinda agree with this. Regardless of whether they're first, second, or third, the three companies are likely to have viable, profitable platforms in North America. Sony is thinking they can slow down the Wii and 360 with continued PS2 support (no chance, IMO) and brand name, but I think they're prohibitively high initial price point will allow the others (particularly Nintendo) to gain enough market share for each to be doing well rather than the way the PS2 was wasting everyone.

This is best for everyone since regardless of which platform is chosen, you're bound to get really good support. The expansion of the industry as a whole has made what was impossible in the mid-90's.

[Flip]

While they all are in the same market, they each have now tried to have their own personality. Sega vs Nintendo used to be Honda vs Toyota while the companies today are like car vs SUV vs truck.

[Zeus]

While they all are in the same market, they each have now tried to have their own personality. Sega vs Nintendo used to be Honda vs Toyota while the companies today are like car vs SUV vs truck.

That's what Nintendo's attempting to do (not sure if it'll work, but their price point makes them an attractive secondary system for most), but Sony vs Microshaft is still like the old days, IMO. Same market

[Imakeholesinu]

I think the 360, by having released a year earlier, has had time enough with most of the titles it will be releasing to eat it's way back into the profit margine. Wii will be the long term winner and unfortunately, I see the PS3 flopping like a blue gill out of water.

[Zeus]

I think the 360, by having released a year earlier, has had time enough with most of the titles it will be releasing to eat it's way back into the profit margine. Wii will be the long term winner and unfortunately, I see the PS3 flopping like a blue gill out of water.

I personally think the order is going to be the same, but Microshaft and Nintendo will increase their market share to make it a closer race. The year head start the 360 has should keep it in front of the Wii IMO, but not by much. And in about year 4 (2010), PS3 should regain the lead after it drops to a reasonable price, but it won't be by an overly large amount.

For Nintendo to win, they'd have to release first and even then, with all the negative publicity they've gotten over the last couple of generations, it would be tough. That's why they're even saying "we're not trying to compete". Even with Reggie recently sayin' "we can be #1", they really can't. Imagine if your president didn't think that....

[Julius Seeker]

The 360 failed to make a considerable head start, after this holiday season, things will be evened up unless the 360 manages to generate some surprise hype this year. By the next holiday season, things will be much more clear.

[Zeus]

The 360 failed to make a considerable head start, after this holiday season, things will be evened up unless the 360 manages to generate some surprise hype this year. By the next holiday season, things will be much more clear.

360 shouldn't have too much of an issue holding on to first after this holiday season in North America. They've already sold what, a million and a half units since last year, maybe more? They've also got far better games out and a much larger variety and those who are turned off by the Wii's controller and PS3s price and the relative lack of games in comparison will be picking it up (that should be a good chunk of the population IMO). It's 2007 where, if either the Wii or the PS3 picks up, where they'll see them coming right up on them and maybe even passing them.

[Julius Seeker]

Are you sure about that? The major problem with the 360 is that there actually aren't any interesting games coming out this fall. There also are not very many confirmed titles for this fall, fewer than Wii, and only a few more than PS3 (much less than PS3 if you only consider November and December).

[kali o.]

Are you sure about that? The major problem with the 360 is that there actually aren't any interesting games coming out this fall. There also are not very many confirmed titles for this fall, fewer than Wii, and only a few more than PS3 (much less than PS3 if you only consider November and December).

I'm not saying you are wrong (though I am pretty sure you are), but where are you getting your numbers? If I am just being lazy, and copying IGN's list (PS - I'll bold games I think people could be excited for, since you don't see any, obviously imo):


Wii
November 19, 2006 Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam Activision Sports
November 19, 2006 Trauma Center: Second Opinion Atlus Software Simulation
November 19, 2006 Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 Atari Fighting
November 19, 2006 Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz SEGA Action
November 19, 2006 Madden NFL 07 Electronic Arts Sports
November 19, 2006 Rayman Raving Rabbids Ubisoft Platformer
November 19, 2006 Cars THQ Racing Action
November 19, 2006 Open Season Ubisoft Action Adventure
November 19, 2006 Need for Speed Carbon Electronic Arts Racing
November 19, 2006 Wii Sports Nintendo Sports
November 19, 2006 Rapala Tournament Fishing Activision Sports
November 19, 2006 Red Steel Ubisoft Shooter
November 19, 2006 Barnyard THQ Adventure
November 19, 2006 GT Pro Series Ubisoft Racing
November 19, 2006 Blazing Angels: Squadrons of WWII Ubisoft Flight Action
November 19, 2006 Monster 4X4 World Circuit Ubisoft Racing
November 19, 2006 Excite Truck Nintendo Racing
November 19, 2006 Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, The Nintendo Adventure
November 19, 2006 Elebits Konami Action
November 19, 2006 Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Activision Action RPG
November 19, 2006 SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature from the Krusty Krab THQ Action
November 19, 2006 Metal Slug Anthology SNK Playmore Action Compilation
November 2006 Grim Adventures of Billy & Mandy, The Midway Games Fighting
November 2006 Far Cry Vengeance Ubisoft Shooter
November 2006 Avatar: The Last Airbender THQ Action Adventure
November 2006 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent Ubisoft Action Adventure
November 2006 Ant Bully, The Midway Games Action
November 2006 Happy Feet Midway Games Adventure
TBA 2006 Camelot RPG Nintendo RPG
TBA 2006 One Piece: Unlimited Adventure Nintendo Action Adventure
TBA 2006 NBA Live 07 [TBA] Electronic Arts Sports
December 2006 Rampage: Total Destruction Midway Games Action
TBA 2006 DK Bongo Blast Nintendo Platformer
December 2006 Super Swing Golf Tecmo Sports
TBA 2006 Killing Day Ubisoft Shooter
TBA 2006 Ice Age 2: The Meltdown Vivendi Games Action
TBA 2006 Rapala Trophies Activision Sports


PS3

November 17, 2006 Fatal Inertia KOEI Racing Action
November 17, 2006 Bladestorm: The Hundred Years War KOEI Strategy
November 17, 2006 EA Sports Fight Night Round 3 Electronic Arts Sports
November 17, 2006 Call of Duty 3 Activision Shooter
November 17, 2006 College Hoops 2K7 2K Sports Sports
November 17, 2006 Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas Ubisoft Shooter
November 17, 2006 Sonic the Hedgehog SEGA Platformer
November 17, 2006 Need for Speed Carbon Electronic Arts Racing
November 17, 2006 Blazing Angels: Squadrons of WWII Ubisoft Flight
November 17, 2006 Ridge Racer 7 NAMCO BANDAI Group Racing
November 17, 2006 F.E.A.R. Vivendi Games Shooter
November 17, 2006 Tony Hawk's Project 8 Activision Sports
November 17, 2006 Resistance: Fall of Man Sony Computer Entertainment Shooter
November 17, 2006 NBA Live 07 Electronic Arts Sports
November 17, 2006 Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom Sony Online Entertainment Action RPG
November 17, 2006 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 Electronic Arts Sports
November 17, 2006 flOw (PS3 Hub Download) *TBA Action
November 17, 2006 Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, The Bethesda Softworks RPG
November 17, 2006 NHL 2K7 2K Sports Sports
November 17, 2006 NBA 2K7 2K Sports Sports
November 17, 2006 Madden NFL 07 Electronic Arts Sports
November 2006 Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Activision Action RPG
TBA Genji: Days of the Blade Sony Computer Entertainment Action
November 17, 2006 Full Auto 2: Battlelines SEGA Racing Action

360

October 15, 2006 Perfect Dark Zero Platinum Hits Microsoft Shooter
October 15, 2006 Project Gotham Racing 3 Platinum Hits Microsoft Racing
October 15, 2006 Kameo: Elements of Power Platinum Hits Microsoft Adventure
October 15, 2006 Need for Speed Most Wanted Platinum Hits Electronic Arts Racing
October 16, 2006 Blitz: The League Midway Games Sports
October 17, 2006 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent Ubisoft Action
October 17, 2006 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent Limited Collector's Edition Ubisoft Action
October 17, 2006 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07 Electronic Arts Sports
October 24, 2006 Phantasy Star Universe SEGA RPG
October 24, 2006 Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Activision Action RPG
Fall 2006 Captain Blood Playlogic International Action Adventure
October 2006 Need for Speed Carbon Electronic Arts Racing
October 31, 2006 Need for Speed Carbon (Collector's Edition) Electronic Arts Racing
November 2, 2006 Viva Pinata Microsoft Strategy
November 2, 2006 Forza Motorsport 2 Microsoft Racing Simulation
November 2, 2006 Viva Pinata Special Edition Microsoft Strategy
November 7, 2006 Star Trek: Legacy Bethesda Softworks Action
November 7, 2006 Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas Ubisoft Shooter
November 7, 2006 Call of Duty 3 Activision Shooter
November 7, 2006 Tony Hawk's Project 8 Activision Sports
November 12, 2006 Gears of War: Limited Edition Microsoft Shooter
November 12, 2006 Gears of War Microsoft Shooter
November 14, 2006 History Channel's Civil War: The Game, The Activision Value Strategy
November 24, 2006 Pimp My Ride Activision Simulation
November 14, 2006 Superman Returns: The Videogame Electronic Arts Action
November 15, 2006 Dead or Alive Xtreme 2 Tecmo Sports
November 19, 2006 Pocketbike Racer Microsoft Racing
November 19, 2006 Sneak King Microsoft Adventure
November 19, 2006 Big Bumpin' Microsoft Action
November 21, 2006 F.E.A.R. Vivendi Games Shooter
November 2007 College Hoops 2K7 2K Sports Sports
Q4 2006 Cars THQ Racing Action
TBA 2006 Killing Day Ubisoft Shooter
TBA 2006 1XR *TBA Racing Action
TBA 2006 Retribution (2006) *TBA Shooter
TBA 2006 Mad Tracks Racing
December 2006 Eragon Vivendi Games Adventure
TBA 2006 Small Arms Fighting Action
Q4 2006 Fuzion Frenzy 2 Microsoft Party
TBA 2006 HoopWorld Action
TBA 2006 RoboBlitz Action
TBA 2006 WarDevil (Enigma) Action
TBA 2006 (yeah right) Jade Empire 2 (Unnanounced) *TBA RPG
TBA 2006 SSX 4 Electronic Arts Sports Action
TBA 2006 Dirty Harry Warner Bros. Interactive Action
TBA 2006 Spark Unlimited Atari Project [untitled] Atari Action
TBA 2006 211 *TBA Action
TBA 2006 Rockstar Xbox 360 Project #2 [untitled] Rockstar Games Action
TBA 2006 Rockstar Xbox 360 Project #1 [untitled] Rockstar Games Action
TBA 2006 Theseis *TBA Adventure
TBA 2006 After Burner SEGA Flight Action
TBA 2006 Highlander SCi Entertainment Group Action
TBA 2006 Mutant Storm 2 Microsoft Action
TBA 2006 Voodoo Nights Action
TBA 2006 Total Overdose 2 SCi Entertainment Group Action
TBA 2006 Castle Wolfenstein [untitled sequel] Activision Shooter
Q4 2006 Harley Davidson Motorcycles Activision Racing
TBA 2006 Tetris THQ Puzzle Action
TBA 2006 Totemball Action
Holidays 2006 Worldwide Soccer Manager 2007 SEGA Sports Simulation
TBA Mobile Ops: The One Year War Bandai Shooter
TBA 2006 Stuntman 2 THQ Racing Action
Fall 2006 Demonik Majesco Action
TBA 2006 House of the Dead SEGA Shooter
TBA 2006 DogTag Digital Jesters Action
Winter 2006 Assault Heroes Sierra On-Line Action
TBA 2006 Track & Field Konami Sports
TBA 2006 New Rally-X Namco Racing
December 31,2006 Cabela's African Safari Activision Sports
TBA 2006 Sonic the Hedgehog SEGA Platformer
TBA 2006 Dance Dance Revolution Universe Konami Music
TBA 2006 Megaforce Vivendi Games Action
TBA 3D Ultra MiniGolf Vivendi Games Sports
TBA 2006 Castlevania: Symphony of the Night Konami Action Adventure
TBA 2006 Castle Crashers Action
TBA 2006 Project Delta Playlogic International Shooter
TBA 2006 Interview with a Made Man Mastertronic Action Adventure

IGN is pretty crap when it comes to updating their list, and it's hard to take a "TBA" for any system, but it was the easiest to cut and paste. But still...the numbers seem pretty clear cut...?

(damn, looks like Crackdown was delayed)

[Julius Seeker]

I checked it at Futureshop. When a title is listed as TBA, that means the company has still yet to confirm its release date. How many of those TBA 2006 games do you think will actually be out in 2006? Many TBA 2006 games are games that nothing has been heard from in a considerable amount of time.

Oh, and I am mistaken, I can guarantee that Splinter Cell Double Agent will be good =)

[Zeus]

Are you sure about that? The major problem with the 360 is that there actually aren't any interesting games coming out this fall. There also are not very many confirmed titles for this fall, fewer than Wii, and only a few more than PS3 (much less than PS3 if you only consider November and December).

So? They have a year head start, more supply than anyone else, more games than anyone else, Nintendo's still gotta earn it's fans, Sony's pushing away fans due to the price, and Microsoft (happy, Lotus? That took a lot of effort) has the greatest hits games as well. No chance they'll catch them this Xmas IMO. They've already got about 2 million units sold through and they're going to have a lot more this Xmas now.

And Kali, Seek's right on the TBA stuff. That means more often than not that the game isn't coming out during that time period, especially when it's October and it's TBA 2006

[Julius Seeker]

Japan is going to be a Nintendo haven, at least this year. There are only 100,000 PS3 units launching as opposed to a million Wii units. Not to mention, in comparison, right now well before the holiday rush season, DS sells approximately 230,000 units weekly in Japan.

I do actually wonder how the Wii and PS3 launches will effect DS sales in Japan. Or for that matter, how much the DS sales will influence Wii sales in Japan.

[Flip]

That really is a crappy launch list for the PS3.

[kali o.]

And Kali, Seek's right on the TBA stuff. That means more often than not that the game isn't coming out during that time period, especially when it's October and it's TBA 2006

Oh, I am quite aware of that (as I said, hard to take a TBA for any system ["...seriously". Left that out while typing]).

My point was, I wasn't exactly sure Seek's statement was true...

In addition, I think it's safe to say that - unless we are all new to system launches and release lists - all of the current known info is likely to change (I mean, is it really likely that Nintendo is the only one with a single December release?). Some of the Nov. 17th/19th stuff will delay, some new unknown titles will pop up, some of the TBA stuff will get concrete, etc, etc.

And most games rarely get a set date more than a month before, so it's a little unfair to be comparing Nov/Dec lists this early.

As for the PS3's somewhat weak INITIAL list (far different from announced support/games)...well I figure it might be due to all those factors that have been building up over the last year (somewhat rushed to release, problems supplying dev kits, new hardware offers steeper learning curve, etc, etc). Games might be a little easier to churn out on the Wii compared to the PS3...it would make sense at first.

[Zeus]

And Kali, Seek's right on the TBA stuff. That means more often than not that the game isn't coming out during that time period, especially when it's October and it's TBA 2006

Oh, I am quite aware of that (as I said, hard to take a TBA for any system ["...seriously". Left that out while typing]).

My point was, I wasn't exactly sure Seek's statement was true...

In addition, I think it's safe to say that - unless we are all new to system launches and release lists - all of the current known info is likely to change (I mean, is it really likely that Nintendo is the only one with a single December release?). Some of the Nov. 17th/19th stuff will delay, some new unknown titles will pop up, some of the TBA stuff will get concrete, etc, etc.

And most games rarely get a set date more than a month before, so it's a little unfair to be comparing Nov/Dec lists this early.

As for the PS3's somewhat weak INITIAL list (far different from announced support/games)...well I figure it might be due to all those factors that have been building up over the last year (somewhat rushed to release, problems supplying dev kits, new hardware offers steeper learning curve, etc, etc). Games might be a little easier to churn out on the Wii compared to the PS3...it would make sense at first.

The Wii list, aside from Zelda, looks pretty weak IMO as well. I mean, yeah, Excite Truck COULD be neat, but it is really a $60 game? Nope. Madden Wii will sell, but I have no interest in paying for a sports game. Trauma Center I'd like, but again, $60? No chance. Same with Rayman and Metal Slug Anthology, particularly since I have X and 3 to 5 already. Wario Ware, Metroid, and Mario are all the ones I really want right now and they're all delayed. I'm getting it for Zelda and may, for the first time in a long while, actually start renting some games while I wait for the used copies to come in.

[Kupek]

I'm going to buy the GC version of Zelda. It was originally designed to be used with a GC controller, so I'm fine with using a GC controller with it, and I doubt the graphical difference (if any) will make a substantial difference. At the time of the Wii launch, Zelda is the only thing I'll want, so I don't see the point in buying one yet.

[Lox]

I already preordered my copy of Zelda for the Wii. I'm actually looking forward to trying out the game using the Wiimote. Should be fun. It'll be a good toning excercise for the arms too.

[Blotus]

Zelda's what I'm most after for the Wii, but I'd really like to wait and see what differences there are between the two versions and if the Wiimote controls really make it better. Otherwise I might just pick up the GC version.

[Julius Seeker]

I thought I replied to this yesterday? Oh well, I was wasted, it was probably for the best that I didn't =P

Up to 11 million Wii units by the end of the year? Hmmmm, that's a lot, though I will hold out until IGN posts the story. Speaking of IGN, they had an interesting article about the next generation consoles dealing with Japanese developers.

http://wii.ign.com/articles/737/737630p1.html

Their expectations on each system are as follows:

Wii - extremely high = 63%; High = 36%; Not much = 1%
PS3 - extremely high = 48%; High = 32%; Not much = 18%
360 - extremely high = 13%; High = 40%; Not much = 45%

Games which they were most excited about:

Wii: Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
PS3: Metal Gear Solid
360: Blue Dragon

What feature they were most excited about:

Wii: The Controller
PS3: Visuals
360: Xbox Live

Which system did they think was going to come out on top:

Wii: 60%
PS3: 37%
360: 3%

My personal opinion, Wii takes a very large early lead in the Japanese market with very little struggle. Especially if they launch with over 10 times as many consoles as PS3.

[Julius Seeker]

Despite what a few certain people here think, I do see the Sony brand name in Japan as being seriously reduced; and Nintendo's seriously elevated. In the past year and a half, there has not been much movement on the PSP or PS2; a year and a half is a very long time. It is enough time for people to stop caring about a brand name they once supported. On the other hand, by far most videogame related sales in Japan have come from a handheld system, the Nintendo DS. It is not just because it is the cheaper of the two handhelds, in fact, the DS Lite costs roughly 10 dollars more in Japan than the PSP does. Using the idea that people actually give that much of a crap about graphics, this makes absolutely no sense at all; in light of the evidence that people care about gameplay, it makes sense, the DS is capable of much more diverse gameplay than the PSP. Though, another possibility is that Sony products just aren't selling as well because the label is fairly meaningless now compared to two years ago; or perhaps it is a combination of the last two (which is what I think). Of course Gamecube isn't doing well at all in Japan, but there is no reason why a system no longer supported in that region (just look at Japanese release lists, I don't even think Zelda is getting a GC release date in Japan) should be.

In light of this, when PS3 and Wii are released, Nintendo does seem to be the bigger brand name. All polls in Japan since E3 seem to indicate as much.



DS Lite is 20,330 yen, PSP is 19,215 yen.

http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B000 ... videogames

http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/product/B000 ... videogames

Systems sold:

September 25 - October 1, 2006
Nintendo DS Lite - 274,389
PSP - 25,319

[SineSwiper]

The PSP is a combination of a N-Gage and a iPood. It's main function isn't gaming.

I still think that the Wii will conquer all simply because of price. While we can still make the kiddie comparisons with Nintendo all we want, parents do care about the price of the systems, so obviously they aren't going to get the 360 or Playstation 3 without thinking about the getting something that's $300 cheaper.

On the flip side, that isn't all that important any more, since I think the young adults come closer to outnumbering the kids in the gaming population. But, I'm an adult, and it affects my decision. Why not others? The only reason why people buy the Xbox 360, is because 1. it's there, and the others are not, and 2. the Xbox population likes playing computer games on a console, for some reason.

Personally, I'll just get a computer and stick it on my future HDTV. It can function as my Xbox 360 just as well. So, yeah, I guess I have two next gen consoles: a Wii, and a computer.

[Andrew, Killer Bee]

Playing it through your TV does not make your PC a console . While the PC and console markets are converging at points they remain and I think will remain much more different than similar.

I weep for the PSP. It's such a beautiful machine, but it just sucks for games. The analogue nub sucks, the load times suck, and the games on the system almost to a one just suck. I hope that Sony take another shot at it, forsake disks and just give it a hard drive, get rid of the d-pad entirely and perfect the analogue stick, and encourage people to develop games appropriate to the system.

I don't think Sony has anything to worry about it Japan. While I do think the Wii is going to be a success, I don't see it cannibalising Sony's customer base, but (if it succeeds) carving out its own niche. You're not going to be able to play a lot of games the Japanese market cares about on any system other than the PS3.

I do think Sony has a fight on their hands for the Western market, though. By the PS3 launch Microsoft will have a significant userbase lead that the PS3 is not going to be able to touch until Sony can really start pumping out PS3s, and who knows how long that's going to take. The 360 also has a lot of compelling Western-market-focused titles that are either wholly or time-based exclusive, and a strong development environment for the system, and an online plan (how do Nintendo and Sony not get how important online play is?!), and a bunch of other things. That said, I think Microsoft are really lucky Sony has screwed up the PS3's launch so badly, because the 360 has had a very, very dry first year.

[Julius Seeker]

Most University students also like cheap.

I do think Sony has a fight on their hands for the Western market, though. By the PS3 launch Microsoft will have a significant userbase lead that the PS3 is not going to be able to touch until Sony can really start pumping out PS3s, and who knows how long that's going to take. The 360 also has a lot of compelling Western-market-focused titles that are either wholly or time-based exclusive, and a strong development environment for the system, and an online plan (how do Nintendo and Sony not get how important online play is?!), and a bunch of other things. That said, I think Microsoft are really lucky Sony has screwed up the PS3's launch so badly, because the 360 has had a very, very dry first year.

According to NPD, the DS and PS2 outsell the 360 in the North American market, and have been almost all year. I do not think that the 360 really has much of an advantage in any market except Australia, which was by far the top Xbox market per capita. Overall, the 360 is actually selling more slowly than the original Xbox; at this point in time the Xbox 360 has sold 2.5 million units in North America as opposed to 3 million original Xbox's in the same time period from its launch. Of course, the PS3 will definately not sell as well as PS2, the chances that it will are so low that we can pretty much look at this as a fact. It is possible that PS3 may not be able to catch up in the next year, we'll just have to wait and see. What I do see happening is DS leading the overall market next year as it did this year.

[Julius Seeker]

http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid= ... wii+vs+ps3

I like this commercial =)