Lox wrote:If anything that happened over the last several years leads to us having a realistic alternative to the 2 party system, I'll be happy, too.
Lox, our voting system encourages the eventual development of a two-party system. That's why most of the time, in our history, there have been two main parties. Federalists vs. Antifederalists, Dems vs. Whigs, Dems vs. Republicans.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_past_the_post
That being said, in times of severe strife and turmoil, usually when both parties are entrenched, over-resourced, and out of touch with large portions of the population resulting severe voter dissatisfaction, you see an explosion of third parties. This happened in the decades before the Civil War, and it was REALLY similar to what's going on today.
1. You had a President, Andrew Jackson, who believed heavily in deregulation, the "spoils system" (appointing party loyalists to high office), high tariffs, and unconditional war against "enemies" (in this case, Native Americans). He was in office from 1829 to 1837. This all sounds pretty familiar, especially in light of what happened next.
2. You had a speculative bubble leading to a crash, the Panic of 1837, which crippled the economy for six years. It's funny, because I didn't remember anything about this before five minutes ago, but looking at our current situation and its relationship to the mid-19th century, I went "There had to be a bubble somewhere". And just like today, it was a real estate bubble fueled by frenzied speculation (for example, Pensacola, Florida real estate was trading for the relative value of Fifth Avenue New York real estate post-bubble). Just like today, it slagged the economy for years afterwards. Sound familiar yet? The implications for the next few years are pretty scary.
3. You had massive immigration from a troubled nation (Ireland) resulting in an influx of poor immigrants to the U.S., who worked in unskilled labor and took jobs from existing Americans who weren't as good at them and demanded higher pay, leading to a nativist movement. (cough cough Mexico cough)
4. Eventually, one of the existing parties self-destructed in the turmoil. This is probably the biggest difference between then and today - in this case, it was actually the Whigs who self-destructed by appointing an anti-slavery candidate, and he got whupped and the party disintegrated. The parallelism breaks down here, because the Whigs were more the equivalent of modern Democrats, and the Democrats were the equivalent of the GOP (message control, tight loyalty et cetera), except today it's the GOP that looks to me like it's disintegrating.
So a couple of new parties sprang up.
You had the Know-Nothings (or the American party), violent angry nativists who said "I know nothing" when asked about their party affiliation due to the fact that they were going around beating and killing immigrants on the DL in their spare time. I doubt we'll see one of these spring up right now, as the GOP is doing just fine in terms of evolving into the same thing.
You had the Republicans, who more or less were the exact opposite of the Republicans of today, who supported modernization and enfranchisement of the poor and opposed slavery.
And the Democrats were still around, and the Whigs stuck around feebly for awhile longer before disintegrating completely. I do wonder if the Republicans are headed in this direction. And there were a BUNCH of "third parties", like the Freesoilers, the Opposition (leftover Whigs), really just too many to name and most of which I knew nothing about.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_po ... al_parties
Check out how many existed from 1837 to 1860.
I really suspect we may be headed for the same thing. I would almost rather die than vote for the GOP again, but with the clear exception of Obama and Barbara Boxer, I'm about ready to throw the Dems out the window too. Between Reid, Pelosi, Barney Frank and his role in the Fannie/Freddie debacle, and Gray Davis and Feinstein (who I am convinced is going senile) and the rest of the assclowns who are slagging my state, I've had it.
I don't have any good choices left, and neither do a lot of other people. Interestingly, the one way we'd REALLY be likely to see permanent third-party change is for someone to get rid of past-the-post and institute something like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_voting
(i wish i could stop writing these essays. it's funny, i was no great shakes as a history student in high school, even if i did get a 5 on the AP test)