Future of downloadable gaming/content (not a bitch-fest)

[Zeus]

So, Pachter believes that the future growth in gaming is going to come from downloadable games/expansions

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6212790.ht ... p;title;10

I don't disagree as I think it's going to become more and more prevalent, but only to a point. It will be more niche (I think of it as Blu Ray vs DVD) as even he suggested since physical media will remain the main method of sale but there's likely to be a ceiling to the volume of sales of gaming in that way and the growth will come from non-physical media. Seems to be a fair assessment IMO.

What I was surprised at was that they say the Lost and the Damned received a "tepid" response which is why it's released on physical media. Didn't it sell pretty darned well? He seemed to think it hit 1 million which is pretty fucking good for a $20 downloadable title (it did receive bricks-and-mortar push in the form of codes you can purchase)

http://kotaku.com/5165818/analyst-lost- ... ta-in-2010

I think it's more Microshaft realizing that the market is only so big currently and that there are a ton of people who still only - or in a vast majority, like myself - buy in physical media. Considering what they reportedly spent on the pair of content ($50 mil) it would be silly of them not to try to expand the market for those games.

Maybe the majority of the sales were though the download codes sold in stores?

[SineSwiper]

I think you're in the vast minority of people who won't buy XBL games because it's not in your hands.

[Eric]

You compare it to DVDs vs Blu Ray?

I kinda compare it to CDs vs MP3s.

It really depends on how badly the industry wants to make the conversion, and how easy it is on the users.

MP3s and Napster kinda forced people's hand, which led to iTunes & MP3s.

Piracy has similarly forced Sony's hand with the PSP Go, but other systems aren't suffering from that nearly as much.

I personally think that people don't give a flying fuck about physical media. We all have friends who stack up their PS3, PS2, X-Box 360 CDs in one pile, or had 20 SNES carts in some custom made tray back in the day. It's just a matter of convenience/ease, IE people still don't have cable connections, the libraries for all these games are only available through specific sources, like Steam, etc.

[Tessian]

I think it's important to make the distinction between console and PC games when discussing downloading games... because it's still just barely picking up steam in consoles, but really downloadable games are saving the PC gaming market. I play PC games more often than Xbox these days because it's so easy to get the game I want, and cheaper (especially if you wait for the sales). The fact that I no longer have to swap out DVD's is a big thing in my book, nor do I have to worry about losing them or their CD keys. If I want to reinstall a game or put it on my laptop I just log into Steam / Impulse and do so-- my game is always available to me.

and yeah, if you're going to make a fair comparison-- it's CDs vs MP3's as Eric said... Blu-ray vs DVDs are still both physical media and the adoption rate between the two has absolutely nothing to do with downloadable sales.

[Zeus]

I think you're in the vast minority of people who won't buy XBL games because it's not in your hands.

I think you misspelled "majority".

[Flip]

I like that i can get what i want right away. Too many times as a kiddo the store was out of the game i wanted and i threw a hissy fit... no more!

Personally, i dont think ill really care in 10 years if i cant play my DL'ed games on the virtual super computer o'matic that will be what everypone has. I pay 20-40 bucks for hours of entertainment, i'm not asking for lifetime entertainment.

Also, my NES finally busted earlier last year and i had to buy a new one. If those games where on the CPU it would have been fine.

[Zeus]

My Blu Ray vs DVD was a comparison in terms of popularity/acceptance not method of purchase.

If it's up to the industry, they would make everything download-only right now and never release a physical media ever again. What's stopping them is acceptance by the consumers. Just like Blu Ray vs DVD. If it were up to the industry, they would never print another DVD ever again. But people just haven't accepted it. It's a niche market right now and they ain't gonna give up the DVD cash cow.

You guys don't read the articles I post, do you? A couple of months ago I posted an article about the physical media vs downloadable where it was something along the lines of 75% of the consumers buy physical media only. It was an article from Edge Online. There are various reasons for it (including internet connections) but at the end of the day, the majority of consumers prefer something in their hands. What I keep saying is the majority of the people here are in the other 25%. But your grandmother who buys Wii games 4 times a year at most? She don't want no downloadable crap, it don't mean nothin' to her. And those people are the majority of the market.

Tess makes a good point about the sales on Steam. Look at the sales figures released by Valve when they have sales. They skyrocket. Didn't Left 4 Dead sales go up by 4000% or something when it was half price? People wait for the sales and grab games they would never consider at full price. This is exactly what I've been saying all along. Downloadable games have to be cheaper since they represent a much different value proposition. If they're cheaper, it makes more sense. If they're the same price as retail, it's silly to buy a non-physical media.

At the end of the day, there's a certain portion of the population that will always want physical media regardless of the price. That's why I think that the downloadable market has a certain ceiling it will never go through. At least not for a few generations (of people, not systems).

[Kupek]

There are various reasons for it (including internet connections) but at the end of the day, the majority of consumers prefer something in their hands.

Did someone perform a study that that is the reason, or is that your own conclusion?

[Shrinweck]

Yeah, I honestly prefer digital copies because I can't lose it or damage it and I can generally download it again if need be. And if I can't, and I'm dumb enough not to back it up, it's my own stupid fault.

Edit: The only thing I miss are manuals and most of those are completely worthless nowadays.

[Oracle]

Couldn't care less if I had a disc in my hands or not.

As long as the service providing the digital copy remembers who I am so I can download the product again if my storage device malfunctions, I'm fine with digital distribution.

[Zeus]

There are various reasons for it (including internet connections) but at the end of the day, the majority of consumers prefer something in their hands.

Did someone perform a study that that is the reason, or is that your own conclusion?

That people prefer physical media? That was the result of the study. Whether internet connections was a factor is my own conclusion

[Kupek]

There's a distinction between more people bought physical media over digital, and more people prefer physical media over digital. Prefer implies that they had the knowledge of digital media, and made a choice based on preference.

[SineSwiper]

I think you misspelled "majority".

I think you're pretending that other people aren't posting and saying "la la la la la" with your fingers in your ears.

[Zeus]

There's a distinction between more people bought physical media over digital, and more people prefer physical media over digital. Prefer implies that they had the knowledge of digital media, and made a choice based on preference.

Here's the article (sorry, took a while to find it) I posted before to quash any ideas that I may be putting my own twist on the results of the survey

http://www.edge-online.com/news/npds-fr ... fer-retail

It's pretty clear: 75% of people PREFER to buy retail. And these are actually game players not everyone. Whether or not all of those 75% had knowledge we cannot verify but if they say they prefer, I think it's safe to assume they had knowledge.

What's telling is more than half (58%) have never downloaded a game. That actually makes perfect sense to me due to the many shortcomings of downloading I mentioned before. But there's more to it than that. There is a perception with people - right or wrong I'm not debating here, just mentioning that it exists - that you don't really "own" something unless you have it in your hands. If it's on the computer you have it, sure, but you don't get the same sense of ownership since you don't physically have it in your hands. It's sort of the same as the people who prefer using cash money as opposed to credit/debit. It's the same thing in the end (I'm a debit-only guy myself) but some people have that need-to-touch-it-for-it-to-be-real mentality. I saw it when I had my store as well.

Think back when you were a kid and how much fun it was to open up that gift and finding the box for FF2 (FF4j) inside (I was actually 14 at the time but it was still fucking awesome). Then you rush to open the box, you hold the game up like the Triforce and make a "haaaaaaaa!" sound, you look through each page of the manual taking in that brand-new smell, then you take out those maps and open them up and gawk at the awesomeness and then gaze at them for hours trying to memorize each and ever corner of them before you embark on your quest. Then every night you stare at the cart in your system as you go to bed thinking of what you have to do the next day to progress through the game. Even if you didn't have an experience quite like that there's no denying there's something to be said for a physical package being a part of the experience of owning a game. It's especially true for kids even moreso.

And don't forget that according to this survey, 65% of the people said they would be more likely to purchase if it's at least 10% cheaper. That's just further evidence supporting the fact that digital downloads are not, in most people's eyes, seen as having the same value as purchasing a physical media.

[Zeus]

I think you misspelled "majority".

I think you're pretending that other people aren't posting and saying "la la la la la" with your fingers in your ears.

No, you're ignoring everything I post if it's contrary to your beliefs even when it's supported by evidence, like the link in my reply to Kup above.

I've been trying to tell you guys that the majority of people here are in the minority of gamers based on the results of an NPD study and not on my personal opinion. Simply put, most of you are in the 25% not the 75%. I personally may be in the 75% but just because that's the case and the majority of the people on this board are in the other 25%, it doesn't mean that my statements are wrong. It just means that the majority of the people on this board have a different preference.

It's not always an opinion if it doesn't agree with your point of view.

[SineSwiper]

I'm with Kupek in that 75% of the population doesn't know what Steam is, and parents didn't realize that you have cheaper games on the 360.

Don't make me pull out that pirates and global warming graph!

[Zeus]

Couldn't care less if I had a disc in my hands or not.

As long as the service providing the digital copy remembers who I am so I can download the product again if my storage device malfunctions, I'm fine with digital distribution.

So we'll see if in 5 years I can still play BC:Rearmed

[Zeus]

I'm with Kupek in that 75% of the population doesn't know what Steam is, and parents didn't realize that you have cheaper games on the 360.

I agree with that myself, I never argued against it. That's why the survey I was using to back up my statements asked GAMERS what their PREFERENCE was.

[SineSwiper]

I'm with Kupek in that 75% of the population doesn't know what Steam is, and parents didn't realize that you have cheaper games on the 360.

I agree with that myself, I never argued against it. That's why the survey I was using to back up my statements asked GAMERS what their PREFERENCE was.

Depends on the definition of "gamer". If it is "anybody that owns a console or plays web games on the PC", that would include damn near everybody.

So we'll see if in 5 years I can still play BC:Rearmed

Still on your HD, then yep. Not on your HD, then you could still re-download it for free. You want a physical copy? Fine, backup your HD.

[Zeus]

I'm going to give the NPD the benefit of the doubt that "gamer" doesn't mean "everyone"

So if in 5 years my HDD conks out I won't be able to play it anymore unless I hack my proprietary HDD and back it up? I paid for the game and it has a limited use? Sounds kinda stupid doesn't it?

[SineSwiper]

I said that you could download it for free.

[Zeus]

I said that you could download it for free.

There's a pretty big assumption there you're ignorning: download it from where?

[Flip]

What's telling is more than half (58%) have never downloaded a game...

...And don't forget that according to this survey, 65% of the people said they would be more likely to purchase if it's at least 10% cheaper. That's just further evidence supporting the fact that digital downloads are not, in most people's eyes, seen as having the same value as purchasing a physical media.

You tried to spin this, but I think these work against your logic. If 58% of the poll takers had never DL'ed a game, how can they say they dont prefer it? Its like saying you hate blueberries without ever eating one. If they DL'ed, maybe they would see how easy and hassle free it is.

In addition, i feel games are cheaper online for DL in my experience. Out of the the 65% in the survey, 58% of them have no idea if DL's are cheaper because they dont DL games.

[Chris]

What's telling is more than half (58%) have never downloaded a game...

...And don't forget that according to this survey, 65% of the people said they would be more likely to purchase if it's at least 10% cheaper. That's just further evidence supporting the fact that digital downloads are not, in most people's eyes, seen as having the same value as purchasing a physical media.

You tried to spin this, but I think these work against your logic. If 58% of the poll takers had never DL'ed a game, how can they say they dont prefer it? Its like saying you hate blueberries without ever eating one. If they DL'ed, maybe they would see how easy and hassle free it is.

In addition, i feel games are cheaper online for DL in my experience. Out of the the 65% in the survey, 58% of them have no idea if DL's are cheaper because they dont DL games.

they definitely are. I mean All I wanted was Bioshock and Freedom orce so I bought the 53.00 2kgames pack this weekend and got me some $259 in games for $53. Yeah I really only wanted $30 of it but then I noticed CIV4 and other games I had never bought and was going to eventually anyway. so yay for steam package deals. I mean really the first one I bought all I wanted was Left 4 Dead. Before this with steam I only ever played counterstrike so I just up and bought the awesomeness of the Valve Pack and got every thing they've ever done for the cost of Left 4 Dead. I paid for a game and got all of em. Did I mention I fucking love Steam?

[Zeus]

What's telling is more than half (58%) have never downloaded a game...

...And don't forget that according to this survey, 65% of the people said they would be more likely to purchase if it's at least 10% cheaper. That's just further evidence supporting the fact that digital downloads are not, in most people's eyes, seen as having the same value as purchasing a physical media.

You tried to spin this, but I think these work against your logic. If 58% of the poll takers had never DL'ed a game, how can they say they dont prefer it? Its like saying you hate blueberries without ever eating one. If they DL'ed, maybe they would see how easy and hassle free it is.

In addition, i feel games are cheaper online for DL in my experience. Out of the the 65% in the survey, 58% of them have no idea if DL's are cheaper because they dont DL games.

If you had read the rest of the paragraph you would see that I was not trying to link the 58% to the preference directly but rather attempt to explain why I think they won't even bother trying. Even if you don't accept that explanation, if 58% won't even bother trying and they know it exists (the study implies some level of knowledge so let's assume they know about it), you can make some correlation to their preference of physical media.

Although most of the time I would agree with you that you should try before you diss, in some cases it's not necessary. It's easy to say you'll hate blueberries coated in fecal matter without ever trying them. You've tried blueberries before and have smelled fecal matter before and can deduce that they won't go good together. In the case of digital downloads, you've bought a game before and know the few pros and innumerable cons that go with digital downloading, so you can make a pretty solid decision as to whether or not you'd like it. We're not including the judgement of whether or not you think the game is going to be good or not, just the method of delivery. You don't necessarily need to try before you diss here, you know EXACTLY what the differences are without trying.

Just because they don't buy don't mean they don't know (wow, 3 times in one sentence; most impressive :-). Your entire argument is based on lack of knowledge but this study implies that there is knowledge due to the subjects used (gamers) and most of the results (related to preference). And if you look at the consoles - where the vast majority of gamers reside nowadays - the downloads ain't cheaper. In most cases, they are the same price (ex: Burnout Paradise, Warhawk) as purchasing a physical media and sometimes can even be more expensive (ex: Namco Virtual Museum collection individual games, most Xbox Originals). For games that only exist in DL format, that's where judgement comes in.

And isn't Steam usually an equal price other than sales? I don't know, I'm asking.

[Tessian]

The entire study is flawed for one reason: It includes console gamers.

You CANNOT ask a console gamer whether they prefer a DVD or a digital copy of a game because the choice DOES NOT YET EXIST. Xbox Live Arcade games are vastly different than what you normally buy in DVD form for $60, so really you're asking them if they prefer Gears of War 2, or Braid. Which do you think they'll prefer? The blockbuster $60 game that comes on a DVD, or the $20 mini games they can download? If PS3 actually offers their largest titles online then that still hardly counts... your biggest user base right now is Wii and Xbox and this is possible on neither.


Conduct the same study on PC gamers, where they DO have the option of getting a DVD or digital copy of EVERY GAME released now and your results will flip, I guarantee it. Otherwise this study is 100% bullshit as it's terribly misleading to the vast majority of gamers (those with only consoles) out there.

[bovine]

If you were toa break it up as PC versus consoles, I would want digital distribution for both if it was basically steam on consoles. Give me weekend sales and let the prices constantly either sink in price or go on sale. I think that Sony and Microsoft are sort of going towards a PSN and XBL centric view of their systems now. With that we can see hardware incrementally move up ala PCs except that there won't be specs to worry about, it will just be "This game works on these SKUs". I would totally dig that model because it would let me upgrade when I wanted to, backwards compatability would be awesome, and console hardware would not regularly increase at the constant rate that PC hardware does since they usually sell them at a loss.

[Zeus]

The entire study is flawed for one reason: It includes console gamers.

You CANNOT ask a console gamer whether they prefer a DVD or a digital copy of a game because the choice DOES NOT YET EXIST. Xbox Live Arcade games are vastly different than what you normally buy in DVD form for $60, so really you're asking them if they prefer Gears of War 2, or Braid. Which do you think they'll prefer? The blockbuster $60 game that comes on a DVD, or the $20 mini games they can download? If PS3 actually offers their largest titles online then that still hardly counts... your biggest user base right now is Wii and Xbox and this is possible on neither.


Conduct the same study on PC gamers, where they DO have the option of getting a DVD or digital copy of EVERY GAME released now and your results will flip, I guarantee it. Otherwise this study is 100% bullshit as it's terribly misleading to the vast majority of gamers (those with only consoles) out there.

It certainly does exist, just in very limited quantities. I gave you a couple of example above.

Regardless, it's whether or not people prefer it. If you prefer it and it's not available, you won't automatically go with the bricks-and-mortar. You could still prefer the digital download just not actually have the ability to purchase them to the extent you would like.

Look, I'm not disagreeing that this is an early study and it may change over time. I think it will and it will shift more towards the digital downloads (why this will happen is a whole other debate entirely, but that's not what this argument is about). But you're talking about preference and I think it's safe to assume that most "gamers" will be well aware of what digital downloads are and their pros/cons vs bricks-and-mortar retail. People can still make this preference choice even if their choices are limited.