<div style='font: 10pt "Arial bold"; text-align: left; '>We used to have fun debating these topics, it'll be nice to start up another good one :-)
What incentive does a Japanese company have to spend their time and effort developing anything other than a port for the Xbox? We know that they got Dead or Alive 3 as an exclusive...for now. But is that a system seller for a $300 US system? Yeah, they got Munch's Odyssey and Halo, but one isn't exactly mass market (Munch) regardless of how hard they're trying to make it one and the other is mass market only in the US (just look at sales of FPSs in Japan). They're getting FFX, MGS2, Crazy Taxi, EA Sports, and Silent Hill 2; all ports or non-exclusive games. In Japan, the Xbox is getting a lukewarm response from both the media and the public...lukewarm at best. That's a very big deal for the Japanese companies. They've already got one system out there that has great sales that has everything the Xbox has and they've got another on the way which may be able to capture some of the market the PS2 doesn't. Xbox is DIRECT competition with the PS2 in every way. Gamecube you can at least make an arguement (a very strong one) that it appeals to a younger market, as the majority of Nintendo first-party stuff does. So there can be SOME incentive there. With the Xbox, there's none.....unless they pay you an insane amount of money for an exclusive (hello, Tecmo).
In the end, this time around, what'll be the difference games-wise is what exclusives will each system have, especially for Nintendo and Microshaft, who have to crack what is Sony's market right now. Sony has a helluva foothold and should have about 6 million or so systems worldwide by the time the other two even launch. Both will needs strong launches to even break into the market. On top of a good userbase, Sony somewhat has the loyalty of a few of the big boys (Square, Namco, Konami, Capcom, Enix, EA), mainly because of the last generation, although that can change overnight, as Nintendo found out. Panasonic will have the DVD/'Cube hybrid and Microsoft will have DVD support (all at the same price with DVD), so no real advantage for anyone there. All of them are about the same cost licence-wise to develop for, which definetely wasn't the case with the last generation. Again, no real advantage for anyone. Microshaft and Nintendo are easy to develop for but Sony has a one-year lead and the last generation of sales to convince others they should be the system to develop for, not to mention the strong userbase. Advantage Sony, easy.
So, Sony has a strong lead. What's the only way to crack it? You can't do it with licence cost or options, as the systems are basically equal. No one has a strong brand name or loyalty than Sony, so you can't do it that way. Yeah, you might be easier to develop for, but so what? Sony has a 6 million plus userbase and the Sony name. The only option left is to build the userbase up to the point where companies like Capcom (who plainly stated in the last generation that they wouldn't develop for a company on a high level until they reached a certain userbase, hence their non-existent support for the N64) can't afford to ignore you anymore and will need to put some strong development behind your system to take advatage of the userbase.
Now comes convincing the public that they should buy your system instead of the other person's. We already know that Sony's in the market and they have great games and the brand name. You're the same price with the same options (unless you get the 'Cube for games only) and you're just coming out. How do you convince Joe Blow to buy you instead? A bunch of ports? Please, they can already get those games on the PS2. Features? Nah, you've got the same as everyone else. Easy development? Like more than 0.1% of buyers out there would even let that affect their decision. It's exclusives, period. It's what sets you apart. Sony has games like Silent Hill 2, MGS2, FFX, etc., long before the others, they work like exclusives. Now, don't get me wrong, ports are important, but they're more like minimum requirements rather than something to set you apart (kinda like a university degree nowadays).
We all know Nintendo has the exclusives with their first- and second-party stuff, so their job will be getting the ports, the minimum requirements, which killed them last generation. But what does Microshaft have?
Personally, I think Sony will win this generation and Nintendo will have a good userbase due to their first-party stuff, but they'll be second. The wildcard is Microshaft. They're going head-on with Sony with, IMO, no real ammunition. None that we've seen yet, anyways. That's not a good thing considering they're direct competition. Nintendo will be most people's secondary system and will probably end up in second place regardless, which isn't exactly a bad thing. They'll have great games which people will want to get the system for, but it won't be the only system people get. The real battle is between the big boys.
My question is: as a consumer, why the hell would you buy the Xbox over the PS2? Think of the question in macro terms as well. Sure, maybe you and 10% of the population in the US could find a reason, but it's also a worldwide thing. In Europe and Japan, Sony rules, period. Xbox isn't even spoken in the same breath over there (neither is 'Cube for that matter). That's pretty small numbers on a worldwide scale. Is there really that many PC gamers that don't have a console who will want to buy a console to play their PC games on? Not when they have to pay $300 US and can't burn games......
BTW, are you ever on ICQ anymore, Kali? I got a new comp and don't have ya on my list anymore...</div>
I was there on that fateful day, were you?
