The Shrine

Just read this interesting article on a theoretical plan to fully convert the US to run on renewable energy, in this case exclusively wind, water, & solar (WWS) by the year 2050. The plan is extremely ambitious and serves mainly to show that it can be done (as opposed to what is actually politically feasible).


(Jacobson et al., Energy & Environmental Science, 2015)

First, he thinks we should electrify everything . Move away from all liquid fuels. Electric motors just are more efficient than internal combustion motors which waste energy on fuel transport and heat loss. Combine this with continued end-user energy efficiency measures like the Energy Star appliances and LED lighting, and you're already cut total energy by almost 40%.

Second, he thinks we need to go crazy building water, wind, & solar energy systems. Since most renewable energy sources are only generating electricity when the wind is blowing or sun is shining, they have only 1/5th the "capacity factor" of traditional fossil fuel plants, you'll need to build out five times the current capacity.

Third, we'll need a way to handle the "variability" or renewably generated electricity:

• build out a new national grid to transfer electricity easily from where it's being generated to where it's being used.
• Have some "always on" renewable systems such as Hydro and Geothermal
• Invest in energy storage (but not batteries for some reason):

  Interestingly, the authors mostly eschew stationary batteries, which they dismiss as too expensive (though they include electric vehicle batteries). Instead they prioritize "storage for excess heat (in soil and water) and electricity (in ice, water, phase-change materials tied to CSP, pumped hydro, and hydrogen)."

• Focus on "demand response," which refers to shifting energy demand to times of high production and away from times of low production.

The authors of the article then ask whether this is feasible or even desirable. Politically, Republicans will be in control of most of the federal and state governments for the next few years, possibly even the decade. They loathe most of the policy prescriptions related to increasing renewables and are in the pocket of the fossil fuel industry. To achieve 100% renewables in such a timeframe would require WWII level mobilization efforts by the federal government. Also, is it desirable to go *fully* WWS? It would be cheaper to also include other carbon-neutral (though less "green") energy sources such as Nuclear & biomass .

Thoughts?

I've been saying it for years: it ain't no secret that the solution to eliminating our addiction to fossil fuels is a multi-pronged one. WWS is great, but we can also see how things like bio-diesel can be used. And the secret to everything is realistic application. Is it realistic to expect everything to be turned into electrical power? With cars? Sure, we're certainly on our way there. But what about houses? Well, that shouldn't be an issue. And there's tons of solutions that can contribute a little and add up to a lot overall (i.e. one interesting one is installing mini, non-blade windmills on street lights so they can be a conduit to adding electricity to the grid rather than taking it away).

On a quick side note: do you know that vehicle s only account for something like 10% of the worldwide fossil fuel polution? The real issue is getting industry involved, but that's a different argument.

Unfortunately, the two ultimate evils get in the way: money and politics. You guys in the US have insane lobby groups and the energy sector is a big player. We here in Canada just have back-door glad-handing that we don't bother doing anything about as a nation. And who's gonna pay for all this especially with the economy sputtering for the last 4 or 5 years and not showing any signs of long-term sustainable recovery? You wanna start hurting the energy industry now and all the direct and indirect jobs associated with it? Likely ain't gonna fly

This is gonna be a solution that will be implement long after we've left this earth. But it's nice to see the start of it, albeit excessively slow one.

Canada should be setting up the infrastructure for this kinda thing, then selling to the US. I guess Canada is already sorta doing that, but the lazy way (oil pipeline, etc).

Everyone should be setting it up. The oil industry is fighting tooth and nail to NOT see it happen. They are terrified - solar, hydrogen, and tide power will ALL become viable competitors to oil before 2100 in terms of the pure science...indeed they are already, if the oil industry's subsidies are eliminated.

Once again I reiterate that it is Exxon and their friends, including oil companies of all stripes, that will oppose you most fully in this. This man does not want to see his power diminish...