Next Console Generation vs Mobile

[Anarky]

So my fiancee works in video game public relations. We recently had this debate about the next generation of consoles in relation to mobile games. She is personally convinced that the next generation is going to have abysmal sales figures while mobile continues to grow into a juggernaut. As much as this upset me at the time, I can actually see her point of view.

If we look at the Wii that was the big rise of casual gaming and from there it moved to Facebook and cellphones/tablets. Most console games continue to have less then stellar sales for game creators and publishers unless it is your big AAA title sequel people have been waiting for. So what do you do? Move to mobile where you have a bigger potential audience and *bleh* micro transactions.

There will still obviously be an audience for console gamers and PC gamers, but when you see more profits in mobile with less risk and investment what path do we expect publishers and game companies to make?

[kali o.]

I don't disagree, but this goes a little back to my "industry alienating the market" comments. I believe people have a LOT of free/cheap sources of games now (including mobile, which usually has the benefit of inexpensive development and easy distribution). Between that and the industry pushing DLC, DRM, used barriers, microtransactions and general greed, I happen to also think next gen consoles will struggle... my bet is the console that offers the best "social community" will be the one that ultimately fairs the best (I figure Live will[...should] be free next gen, as a result).

Of course, this rise in mobile games will lead to loads of shovelware and increased greed tactics in an oversaturated market. On the one hand, it might mean more people grow up with videogames and it leads to more artistic development. On the other hand, shifty greed tactics that will undoubtedly dominate the industry may alienate all those consumers as well and we could see the whole thing crash.

[Don]

I don't really see how mobile can possibly be competitive against the next generation console if the console guys aren't greedy, but like Kali says they are. I don't see why a console game inherently has to sell for $50. In the pre Internet age you can argue a console game that sells for $10 at start isn't going to get any shelf space so it won't have a chance to sell, but now we got the ability to sell games online so you don't have to worry if your budget game is never going to show up on the shelves of Gamestop, and I can't see how even the cheapest budget game on a next generation console would lose to a mobile platform since the difference in power is staggering, not to mention mobile isn't a good platform for a lot of types of games.

[Anarky]

I don't really see how mobile can possibly be competitive against the next generation console

Install base. They can compete on the sheer number of people who have smart devices capable of gaming.

I don't see why a console game inherently has to sell for $50.

This has been an issue and source of discussion for a long time. Thankfully STEAM and Kickstarter have enabled different paths.

I can't see how even the cheapest budget game on a next generation console would lose to a mobile platform since the difference in power is staggering

Power doesn't matter to most people, this is why the Wii did so fucking well. It was casual and your grandma and grandpa could bowl with you.

not to mention mobile isn't a good platform for a lot of types of games.

Very true, but this might be one of those wait and see things.

[Eric]

Problem solved lol. ;p

Seriously though, the Smart Phones are getting more and more powerful, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the handheld market fall at some point completely to phones.

Console gaming though I'm not 100% sold on though. People buy phones to actually use their phones to talk to other people, and might buy games on those phones casually when they're bored. People still buy consoles for console experiences and games that want to give you a very distinct experience.

[Anarky]

Console gaming though I'm not 100% sold on though. People buy phones to actually use their phones to talk to other people, and might buy games on those phones casually when they're bored. People still buy consoles for console experiences and games that want to give you a very distinct experience.

True, but there has been plenty of articles over the last year about software sales being down roughly 25% on consoles. Video games are basically having the same issue movies are having. Huge budgets with not enough return if the game fails to hit the masses.

[Anarky]

http://allthingsd.com/20130325/a-look-a ... attention/

[Eric]

Console gaming though I'm not 100% sold on though. People buy phones to actually use their phones to talk to other people, and might buy games on those phones casually when they're bored. People still buy consoles for console experiences and games that want to give you a very distinct experience.

True, but there has been plenty of articles over the last year about software sales being down roughly 25% on consoles. Video games are basically having the same issue movies are having. Huge budgets with not enough return if the game fails to hit the masses.

That has more to do with the growth of the used game market destroying console sales.

*Waits*

[kali o.]

That has more to do with the growth of the used game market destroying console sales.

*Waits*

Sounds like bunk to me. Used games did not cannibalize the market 10 years ago (for that matter, neither did rentals). Times are simply changing, plenty of cheap/free alternatives out there, hurting the perceived value of *new* boxed games -- so you see a reduction in the full price purchases...and then the industry compares to the used game market and screams "THAT'S WHY!!! Damn you gamestop...amazon...ebay (whatever)!".

They could...besides making good games, incentivize new game purchases by including EXTRAS. That might work. Someone needs to tell them they don't accomplish that by locking out consumers via DRM from stuff that is already included...like online...and content...and features. That stuff isn't EXTRA and kind of misses the whole definition of "incentivize"...

[Don]

The install base of console is still very high. I mean Playstation 2 was like 100 million units? While no one system has that kind of numbers anymore it's not like you'll go poor if you only sell 100K copies of a game at $10. If you can make a game on the iPhone for $10 you can make the same game on PS3 for $10, and no the 'there are more people' doesn't really mean much. That's what everyone says about China but it doesn't mean any crazy plan you have is automatically going to work because there are more than 1 billion people in China. Sure the mobile has a bigger base but a lot of people are not interested in gaming to begin with. Unless you're attempting to make some kind of casual game (which mobile might have an edge), if I'm making a budget FPS for $10 it's not like I expect there to be way more FPS fans that have an iPhone compared to an XBox + Wii + PS3, because I can be pretty sure a fan of FPS is likely to have one of those 3 systems (assuming I'm able to reach all 3 systems). For example look at the game Square is selling on iPhone, they go for like $20 or whatever and they're basically standard RPGish type games. Well people who like standard Square RPG games have a very high probability of owning a gaming console too.

For used games, I'm sure they always hurt the sales the same way piracy always hurts it but back in the good old days games made enough money that it was just a cost of business. I think in general the cost of entertainment has gone way down. People are starting to realize that paying $50 for some hyped game that really isn't that good isn't really a good deal when you can buy 5 games at $10 and generally do better just due to sheer volume (at least 1 of those games might be good). It's the same deal with F2P beating sub games not because F2P is some kind of magic sauce but that $15/month is really way too much to pay for the nonexistent content updates in sub games so you might as well go F2P.

[Julius Seeker]

There has been a fairly large increase in the used game industry in recent years. 15 years ago you'd have to go to a pawn shop. 7 years ago there are EB Games all over the place, and nowadays there are used game sections in just about every store that sells games.

The easy way around it is to simply place greater emphasis on digital distribution. Or do what the PC industry did years ago and make it similar to the sale of a permanent license. You buy the license to use the game forever, and the disk just happens to have the content on it that the license gives you access to, but you can also download it if you want.

Maybe do like Steam does, and permanently lock licenses to an account.

[SineSwiper]

Seriously though, the Smart Phones are getting more and more powerful, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the handheld market fall at some point completely to phones.

Console gaming though I'm not 100% sold on though. People buy phones to actually use their phones to talk to other people, and might buy games on those phones casually when they're bored. People still buy consoles for console experiences and games that want to give you a very distinct experience.

Agreed. This is my stance. The handheld market is dying. Console gaming will still be the norm for actually playing games, not just little casual experiences.

Also, the WiiU launch is uncharacteristically abysmal. I'll admit that I wouldn't have seen this coming from Nintendo, but they have been finding ways of screwing up their console market for over a decade now.

[Zeus]

The DS passes the PS2 to become the highest selling system - console or handheld - of all time and this guy says the handheld market is dying.

Wii is still the best selling system of the current generation and it's dead. Way to fuck it up for the last 6+ years, Nintendo! Proof of both the above:

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

PS2s first 6-months (best selling console of all time) was about 1.41M units sold (http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2). Wii U is already at 2.76M (see above link) and March numbers ain't in yet. People tend to forget that first-year sales of systems are usually very slow as there's usually a huge lack of games aside from launch. There are a few exceptions (Wii was actually one of them) but the rule is lack of software for about the first year. Everyone forget how there was Oblivion and nothing on the 360 until Gears came out a full year later while the PS3 had so few exclusives that you couldn't get on the 360 that it was little more than a really expensive Blu Ray player and a Metal Gear Solid 4 adaptor until almost 2 years after launch? I agree that the Wii U has been particularly bad in the Jan to Mar quarter. Heck, I'm not even considering getting one because there's not enough for it.

Do you guys honestly not believe that there is a place for both the idiotphone games AND the handheld games? Judging by the numbers, it simply appears that the idiotphones are expanding the market as opposed to replacing the incumbent handhelds. And judging by the almost mutually-exclusive nature of the software being released on the two different platforms (for now I'm lumping all phones as one platform for ease), it would seem that they more exist together as opposed to taking from each others' market share.

And this fallacy that used games destroys new games will finally be debunked once one of the new consoles (likely Xbox) goes the way of Steam and introduces activation codes making the actual disks purchased useless beyond the first use. They keep talking about it and even though I wanna believe they're not that stupid, I'm sure one of them will try it. Microshaft being Microshaft, and the fact the rumours have been "leaked" to perform market research, points to them being the guinea pigs.

Spend some time in a Gamestop or other used game store and watch how many people trade in stuff and you'll see why it's a stupid mentality that'll only lead to a reduction in the industry. Then go take a look at the sheer volume of stuff being moved on Kijiji or Craigslist and you'll see that what's really hurting the industry is the lack of tiered pricing. I thought Borderlands and Batman Arkham Asylum mighta proved something to the industry but I guess they're too stuck look at themselves in the mirror to notice what's really going on.

[Eric]

The DS was put out and sold primarily before the real rise of the smart-phone and tablet market though.

The 3DS struggled early, and the Vita was dead on arrival, during the pad/phone boom.

Going forward how can you dismiss the fact that parents buy pads or phones for their kids as opposed to a dedicated handheld system? A bunch of my friends I grew up with have kids now, and they basically get their children ipads, I see kids in restaurants playing on ipads, I remember a time when it used to be gameboys and the Nintendo DS, but handheld market definitely took a hit with the rise of tablets/smartphones.

In regards to blocking used games, I think Sony is going to take the wait/see approach since they have the patent/ability to force it on the PS4, and Microsoft is just going to go with it initially. Depending on how developers/market responds, Sony might go ahead and make it a firmware update that requires installs like the NextBoX is rumored to do.

[SineSwiper]

The DS passes the PS2 to become the highest selling system - console or handheld - of all time and this guy says the handheld market is dying.

Nice. You take a decade long metric and try to apply it to a shorter term pattern.

The Nintendo 3DS sold 6.38 million worldwide in 2012 Q4. Sounds pretty awesome, right? Worldwide sales of smartphones ended up at 217 million units in 2012 Q4. That's a ratio of 34:1. I'm not even counting tablets at this point.

[Zeus]

The DS passes the PS2 to become the highest selling system - console or handheld - of all time and this guy says the handheld market is dying.

Nice. You take a decade long metric and try to apply it to a shorter term pattern.

The Nintendo 3DS sold 6.38 million worldwide in 2012 Q4. Sounds pretty awesome, right? Worldwide sales of smartphones ended up at 217 million units in 2012 Q4. That's a ratio of 34:1. I'm not even counting tablets at this point.

Smartphones are often the sole means of communication for people. You cannot assume that a) each person who buys a phone does so with the primary reason for gaming and b) they will actually pay for a game on it. We are still by nature social human beings and cells have become the main form of communication. Completely different markets. Let's take a look and see what the sales of the handhelds have been like for the last few years to see if there's a decline.

I hate to use the Japanese sales all the time, but they're the best tracked. Looking there, handhelds COMPLETELY dominate consoles on a weekly basis (http://the-magicbox.com/1303/game130322e.shtml). 3DS is selling (between regular and XL) on average about 100,000 a week in 2013. Heck, even Vita has been up to about 30k a week the last month. Microshaft always brags about how their Xbox is in the 170-200k range in North America every MONTH nowadays and they're now leading for the 17th month in a row or something. Looking back to the beginning of the current generation, 400k-500k a month in North America was about peak for the Wii and it was dominating for a LONG time (http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Wii). I can't find equivalent charts for the 360 and PS3.

VGChartz did a worldwide sales analysis for June 2010 and 2011 (May 2011 too; http://www.vgchartz.com/article/87194/m ... t-the-top/). We do see a HUGE drop in the Nintendo DS and PSP, no doubt. But really, you're talking about 6 and 7 year-old systems at that point with new hardware (3DS) released in the markets. Add in the 3DS sales and the dominant platform is still the DS but by a VERY small margin over the Wii. And remember, Nintendo dropped the price of the 3DS in August 2011 in North America because sales were so "shitty" due to lack of software and the starting price. Their sales are much better now with the price cut and better software (can't find charts but there's news about that all the time). As of right now, the 3DS is trending above the DS in lifetime sales (http://gametoaid.org/forum/351-3ds-and- ... -figures/0) and there's no doubt in anyone's estimation that the software is becoming pretty strong on it after a horrendous start.

What I've been trying to impress upon you guys the whole time is just because there's TONS of people playing games on their phones now it don't mean it's signalling the end of the handheld market. Sales trends are actually showing a slight up-tick when averaged out (can't take the ups and downs monthly into consideration, too many factors). What's really happening is an expansion of the market to non-traditional gamers who would never buy a handheld for whatever reason and also gamers like us who will play games on their phones on top of consoles and handhelds.

The simple fact of the matter is the experience and styles of games are very different on phones vs handhelds. This couldn't have been made more apparent than the announcement by Samsung of the gaming controller attachment for the Galaxy 4 (http://bgr.com/2013/03/18/samsung-galax ... er-383145/). There's no doubt that the phones are more than powerful enough to handle anything. But the nature of their interface (large touchscreen or touchpad mouse controls) is fucking shitty for gaming (I won't go into my rant on how touchscreen is the worst interface invented for anything). And who the hell is gonna buy a $40 game on their phone? $4 is considered premium and we've had a long discussion in other threads about how development costs have gone through the roof. You think you'd ever see Zelda or Uncharted on a smartphone in that kind of market?

I'm not sayin' it won't eventually happen. I truly believe that in 20 years all gaming will be streaming services with a very small niche for individual consoles, handhelds, and physical games. I hate the prospect but it's an inevitability. But to say that it's already happened is just an unfounded, biased opinion.

[Julius Seeker]

The cell phone industry isn't getting those sales because they're the latest big thing in the videogame industry. They're getting them because they're the latest big thing in the telecommunications industry. The telecommunications industry has always dwarfed the videogame industry.

The types of gaming software played on mobile platforms, for the most part, is very different than the software on dedicated consoles. The games that are most successful on cellphones are the kind where you go in, tap a bunch of times to get things to happen, and then logout until you can do more stuff - these are completely different types of games than what you'd play on gaming consoles.

Dedicated gaming consoles always have the ability to evolve towards directions which cater towards different types of gaming. The cellphone industry doesn't have that luxury, they have to cater primarily towards the telecommunications industry. Those that diverge have all flopped.

[Don]

I saw Megaman X for the iPhone and I absolutely cannot comprehend how the controls work. It seems like you're supposed to tap some part of the screen to jump or shoot. I mean sure if you want to play a game that's similar to web-browser games where you just login and click on 2 things and wait 24 hours before you can do it again the console's got nothing on that because all the extra power of a console is completely wasted there. But if I want to play a FPS or RPG or anything else I'd certainly prefer something that actually has buttons I can press.

[Zeus]

I saw Megaman X for the iPhone and I absolutely cannot comprehend how the controls work. It seems like you're supposed to tap some part of the screen to jump or shoot. I mean sure if you want to play a game that's similar to web-browser games where you just login and click on 2 things and wait 24 hours before you can do it again the console's got nothing on that because all the extra power of a console is completely wasted there. But if I want to play a FPS or RPG or anything else I'd certainly prefer something that actually has buttons I can press.

It's even more limited than that. Take any genre on the consoles and attempt to add touchscreen controls. Other than a couple of exceptions, most genres border on unplayable without buttons. They're very different gaming markets

[SineSwiper]

The simple fact of the matter is the experience and styles of games are very different on phones vs handhelds. This couldn't have been made more apparent than the announcement by Samsung of the gaming controller attachment for the Galaxy 4 (http://bgr.com/2013/03/18/samsung-galax ... er-383145/).

Which means they are adapting. And worse, this push is likely going to create a standard for gaming controller interfaces. Do you know what that means? It means that you'll be able to download any game from any Android phone and use it with any style of controller. Sure, there will be some compatibility issues, but most of that will be ironed out over time.

I'm not sayin' it won't eventually happen. I truly believe that in 20 years all gaming will be streaming services with a very small niche for individual consoles, handhelds, and physical games. I hate the prospect but it's an inevitability. But to say that it's already happened is just an unfounded, biased opinion.

It's a matter of degrees and taking in the entertainment value as a whole. For example, 20 years ago, the Gameboy was what kids owned for playing games while on the bus, or in the car, or otherwise in a boring situation. The whole point of the device was to relieve boredom. The fact that it had an array of great games was a good selling point, but anything that filled the void of "relieving boredom" would work, preferences aside. (In general, you didn't really play the Gameboy if you already had a console in range.)

Smartphones and tablets are multi-functional. They can surf the web, play music, play movies, and play games. While the latter part of that is in the more casual arenas, it still works well enough for most people. Is the 3DS better at playing games? Sure. Do parents care? Not really. Do adult gamers care? Generally, no, because the smartphone is available to "relieve boredom" while traveling, and the console/PC is there for actual gaming.

Therefore, the 3DS has already been regulated into a niche status, even more so than something like the Gameboy. The gamer audience in general has grown, but so have the number of devices that support gaming. Trying to argue with numbers would be like trying to claim that Fox News has the highest viewership of any 24/7 cable news network. Sure, the statement is technically correct, but it completely ignores the population at large (who are watching American Idol, or even NBC News, in much much greater numbers).

[Zeus]

Therefore, the 3DS has already been regulated into a niche status, even more so than something like the Gameboy. The gamer audience in general has grown, but so have the number of devices that support gaming. Trying to argue with numbers would be like trying to claim that Fox News has the highest viewership of any 24/7 cable news network. Sure, the statement is technically correct, but it completely ignores the population at large (who are watching American Idol, or even NBC News, in much much greater numbers).

You actually kept your bias in check until this paragraph. The 3DS ain't regulated to nothing, at least not yet. It's trending higher than the highest-selling system, console or handheld, of all time (DS). Until the numbers and long-term trends actually show it, you can't say nothin' about declining popularity of the handheld markets or why it's happening. Simply put, sales figures show the exact opposite and are completely disproving your theory/bias.

You really have to realize that these two markets are very, very different even if there is SOME overlap (and it's minor). We've just opened up a previously untapped casual market (ie. the ones who don't really game but would dabble if they didn't have to get an extra device) and it's not even affecting the previously-established market yet. Will this new controller from Samsung change anything? I will say no. People want their thin phones in their pockets not a clunky controller. May some people get it for when they're in the house? Sure, but I personally think it'll be very minor. We've seen what happens in the consoles when you fragment the market (ie. the fragmentation devices die...fast; don't believe me? Ask Sega how the 32X and Sega CD did...). This attachment is market fragmentation and will likely be doomed to marginalization. It's simple business economics, really.

Maybe the two markets will start overlapping more, I will concede that. You'd be pretty short-sighted to not think they may get closer to each other over time. I personally think it'll take a fundamental change in user interface, but that's another argument. But it hasn't yet so you can't sit there and say "Nintendo, the company I hate the most in the world, is going to die and I'm gonna have a front-row seat to laugh my ass off while it does. I'm SO FUCKING HAPPY AND I WANNA TELL THE WORLD!!".

And never forget the proven rule: Anything that does everything never does anything well

[SineSwiper]

Therefore, the 3DS has already been regulated into a niche status, even more so than something like the Gameboy. The gamer audience in general has grown, but so have the number of devices that support gaming. Trying to argue with numbers would be like trying to claim that Fox News has the highest viewership of any 24/7 cable news network. Sure, the statement is technically correct, but it completely ignores the population at large (who are watching American Idol, or even NBC News, in much much greater numbers).

You actually kept your bias in check until this paragraph. The 3DS ain't regulated to nothing, at least not yet. It's trending higher than the highest-selling system, console or handheld, of all time (DS). Until the numbers and long-term trends actually show it, you can't say nothin' about declining popularity of the handheld markets or why it's happening. Simply put, sales figures show the exact opposite and are completely disproving your theory/bias.

Again, you are comparing handhelds with other handhelds, in a market where Nintendo dominates, anyway. Even comparisons with consoles don't factor in the price, and the fact that we're barely in the next generation of consoles. And the biggest missing factor of all: most people are gamers now. Again, sure, the 3DS is getting plenty of growth, but a majority of the public can already fire up their phone and play a game.

Sigh, and you completely ignored the rest of the post. About how handheld gaming is less about the "gaming" part, and more about the "entertainment" and "relieving boredom" part. People play the really good games on console/PC.

[Don]

I always wonder the 'relieving boredom' part because for example I saw Might and Magic: Clash of Heroes on the iPhone, and that is a puzzle that took me about 30 hours to just finish the story mode and it's not really that bloated so far as a game goes. So how often do you need to relieve 30 hours of boredom on the go? And of course even here on a game that is played with only a mouse, I'm reading that the input sometimes mistakes your tap for the left click function instead of the right click which can lead to rather disastrous results as these two buttons basically do completely different things, so if you can't have reliable controls for a game that only needs a mouse to play how can that possibly be an enjoyable gaming experience for anything more complicated? Sure I guess if you want to do the equivalent of Utopia the mobile platform is fine but I don't really consider those as games. I have a hard time seeing someone playing even a game as simple as say, Tetris, at a high level with a touchscreen interface.

[Julius Seeker]

I wouldn't really classify people who play games to relieve boredom as gamers, not anymore than people who do crossword puzzles to relieve boredom.

Gamers play games because they enjoy games, and play the games they do specifically because they want to play those games.

[SineSwiper]

I always wonder the 'relieving boredom' part because for example I saw Might and Magic: Clash of Heroes on the iPhone, and that is a puzzle that took me about 30 hours to just finish the story mode and it's not really that bloated so far as a game goes. So how often do you need to relieve 30 hours of boredom on the go?

Did it not have a save feature?

I wouldn't really classify people who play games to relieve boredom as gamers, not anymore than people who do crossword puzzles to relieve boredom.

Well, I'm only talking about people who play games on handhelds or phones. Most people who have a phone will also own some sort of console. Here's the numbers (worldwide):

Wii - 99.15 million
Xbox 360 - 74.87 million
PS3 - 73.70 million

If we make a (reliable) assumption that most people only have one console, you end up with (99.15+74.87+73.70) * 80% = 198.18 million. The Venn diagram on that is going to be merge pretty well with the potentially billions of smartphone/tablet users, and that's not even factoring PC gamers that don't own a console.

So, at 29.80 million 3DS units sold, a whopping ~15% of console owners also own a 3DS, and that's on the highest end. But, I doubt the Venn diagram is going to be separated all that much with the 3DS and console owners, either. Compared to the phone saturation, that's not that high a percentage.

Again, my argument is that people who play games will favor the console/PC games, and don't need to play games while traveling, or will make do with the phone/tablet games that already exist.

[Don]

Just because a game has a save feature doesn't mean it make sense to play say a RPG one hour at a time and an hour is closer to a dedicated gaming session than 'relieving boredom'. Here I'm assuming 'relieving boredom' means you're relatively far away from your console/PC, because if you need to relieve boredom for extended period of time you should use one of those two devices instead.

If you do one puzzle per day in Clash of Heroes you'd need like 2 months to finish the game, and sure I get that some people are casual in the sense they don't need to rush through the game but I'm not sure you'd enjoy the game very much because most likely you won't even remember what the story is. As far as I know most people who play ultra casually never finish the game, and sure you can say it doesn't matter because you already have their money, but I'd think having people finish your game means it's more likely to have future business.

[Julius Seeker]

I wouldn't really classify people who play games to relieve boredom as gamers, not anymore than people who do crossword puzzles to relieve boredom.

Well, I'm only talking about people who play games on handhelds or phones. Most people who have a phone will also own some sort of console. Here's the numbers (worldwide):

Wii - 99.15 million
Xbox 360 - 74.87 million
PS3 - 73.70 million

If we make a (reliable) assumption that most people only have one console, you end up with (99.15+74.87+73.70) * 80% = 198.18 million. The Venn diagram on that is going to be merge pretty well with the potentially billions of smartphone/tablet users, and that's not even factoring PC gamers that don't own a console.

So, at 29.80 million 3DS units sold, a whopping ~15% of console owners also own a 3DS, and that's on the highest end. But, I doubt the Venn diagram is going to be separated all that much with the 3DS and console owners, either. Compared to the phone saturation, that's not that high a percentage.

Again, my argument is that people who play games will favor the console/PC games, and don't need to play games while traveling, or will make do with the phone/tablet games that already exist.

Considering the 3DS launched in 2011, and the Xbox 260 in 2005, the PS3 and Wii in 2006, I would say its nearly 30 million sales are incredibly good in comparison.

In 2009, NPD reported that in North America, 42% of PS3 and Xbox 360 owners also owned a Wii.
In the same report, they stated that 36% of PS3 owners also owned a 360, and 18% of 360 owners own a PS3. These numbers are no doubt higher now that more time has passed, but we'll go with them anyway for the purpose of an educated estimate:

So subtracting 9.1 million PS3s from Japan, since Xbox 360 doesn't sell there we can calculate: 73.7 - 9.1 = 64.6 * 0.36 = 23.4 million PS3/Xbox 360 co-owners.
73.7 * 0.42 = 31 million people who own both Wii and PS3.
74.87 * 0.42 = 31.5 million who own both Wii and Xbox 360.

So that's a total of about 86 million consoles of those 198.18 million that can't be counted as unique users. Or 112.18 actual unique users. So in this case, 3DS has 27% the userbase of those consoles. The 3DS was also only launched in 2011, whereas those consoles were launched in 2005 and 2006, so they have been on the market for an average of about 7 years vs. 3DS's 2 years.

So in reality, you're actually looking at a single handheld console reaching at least 27% of home console users in roughly 29% of the it took all three major consoles to reach that userbase.

Last week, the combined sales of handhelds equaled about 240K, and the combined sales of home consoles equaled 271K - the difference in these numbers is negligible. 3DS has consistently been the top selling gaming overall.

[Zeus]

Therefore, the 3DS has already been regulated into a niche status, even more so than something like the Gameboy. The gamer audience in general has grown, but so have the number of devices that support gaming. Trying to argue with numbers would be like trying to claim that Fox News has the highest viewership of any 24/7 cable news network. Sure, the statement is technically correct, but it completely ignores the population at large (who are watching American Idol, or even NBC News, in much much greater numbers).

You actually kept your bias in check until this paragraph. The 3DS ain't regulated to nothing, at least not yet. It's trending higher than the highest-selling system, console or handheld, of all time (DS). Until the numbers and long-term trends actually show it, you can't say nothin' about declining popularity of the handheld markets or why it's happening. Simply put, sales figures show the exact opposite and are completely disproving your theory/bias.

Again, you are comparing handhelds with other handhelds, in a market where Nintendo dominates, anyway. Even comparisons with consoles don't factor in the price, and the fact that we're barely in the next generation of consoles. And the biggest missing factor of all: most people are gamers now. Again, sure, the 3DS is getting plenty of growth, but a majority of the public can already fire up their phone and play a game.

Sigh, and you completely ignored the rest of the post. About how handheld gaming is less about the "gaming" part, and more about the "entertainment" and "relieving boredom" part. People play the really good games on console/PC.

Of course I'm comparing handhelds to handhelds. Your whole argument is that the handheld market is dying because of smartphone userbase which has the ability to play games on those devices. I was using trends and numbers to show you that there's virtually no impact on the handheld market and that gaming on the cell market is, in fact, an expansion of portable gaming as opposed to a direct competitor to the dedicated handheld gaming market. This has been our entire argument so far.

The reason I compared it to the console market was SOLELY to show you that there's a larger userbase on the handhelds.

You'll have to further explain the difference between "gaming" and "entertainment" since one is a form of another.

[SineSwiper]

Okay, you have better numbers than I do on the uniqueness of the consoles, which are interesting. I concede that 3DS's saturation is more impressive than I thought.

Though, I think 3DS's success partially has to do with the period that it was launched in comparison to the consoles' generation. We're in a low period point in gaming in general, which is causing a high demand of something that can satisfy that thirst.

[Zeus]

Okay, you have better numbers than I do on the uniqueness of the consoles, which are interesting. I concede that 3DS's saturation is more impressive than I thought.

Though, I think 3DS's success partially has to do with the period that it was launched in comparison to the consoles' generation. We're in a low period point in gaming in general, which is causing a high demand of something that can satisfy that thirst.

And don't forget how horribly the 3DS started. They were so bad that within the first 5 month in North America (a little more than that in Japan) they dropped the price by over 20% and gave away 20 free games. When have you EVER heard of that? That simply tells you how poorly they were doing and how severely the numbers reflected they mis-read the market.

I think that the low point in gaming is more on the console and games side. In a more competitive environment with so much info out there, people have much more choice. Makes it harder to sell expensive or shitty things. The fact that the current gen of consoles (minus the Wii) don't look or feel outdated and the games can still awe is a big deal too. With the rising costs of games providing us with far less variety, people are simply choosing to ignore a lot. I can never remember a time when games have died out so fast sales-wise as now. I actually could have bought sealed copies of Bioshock Infinite and God of War Ascension and did buy Tomb Raider with the hard-cover comic for $40 on Kijiji....sealed....within 2 weeks of release (no sales in stores). Nothing is holding its value, it's crazy. I'm very curious how this, coupled with the extra restrictions coming on used games in the next gen, will affect the sales of the new consoles coming out this Xmas starting in 2014 (first 2 months they sell, period). Wii U may not look so bad once some of the other numbers come out next year. Really, people just don't desire or need new consoles right now and I haven't heard of a single killer app or feature making people want to get one against their better judgement.

People simply have too many options now. The fact that the 3DS is doing what its doing in an environment like this with cellphones being decent gaming machines means the market is quite strong. If the Vita continues its pace, it's not out of the question to say the handheld market is strong than its ever been.