A lot to go over, so I think it'd be better to keep this one point. I'm going to go over the problems and technological developments leading toward this. Then I am going to post some of my predictions.
CAUSES - Negative Factors
1. The dedicated handheld market saw an incredible decline in the last generation with the 3DS and Vita.
2. Home consoles have been declining since about 2008.
3. Japan, which is still main producer of dedicated console games has seen its own home console industry come to an abrupt end with both PS5 and XBS bombing.
3a. PS5 sales have been declining week over week in Japan. The week ending January 3rd saw only 10,632 units sold, while Nintendo Switch sales were 312,121 - about 30 times higher.
4. Traditionally home console based X86 CISC architecture is slowing down.
CAUSES - Positive Factors
1. Advancement in ARM architecture is accelerating while CISC is slowing down.
2. Nintendo, Apple, and Nvidia have all moved to focus on ARM architecture.
2a. Nintendo dropped Power PC for ARM.
2b. Apple dropped Intel and will transition to fully ARM based processors in 2 years.
2c. Nvidia purchased the ARM company for 40 billion dollars.
3. ARM doesn't suffer from the same physics limitations as X86 since the chips run much cooler.
3a. Apple's 32 core M1 chip running in a Macbook Air runs cool without a fan near peak performance - even though the CPU is a 3.2 GHz eight-core.
4. ARM is advancing much more quickly than anything else.
5. CPU ARM cores are already exceeding CISC cores.
6. The world's most powerful supercomputer, by a very distant lead, is ARM-based. It is three times more powerful than the current runner-up (this a fact of interest rather than an actual cause).
OBSERVATIONS
1. Nintendo's Switch has exceeded the commercial performance of 3DS+Wii U, and PS4+Vita across the same timeframe.
2. People who use Switch as a family home console are more likely to buy more of them for personal-portable usage, increasing market share and overall lifespan.
3. Switch's 4th year is its highest yet, tied with the DS and only exceeded by the NES and Gameboy which also have reasons - all three have unique reasons.
3a. The NES (1983) availability was limited to certain cities until 1988 in North America and 1990 in Europe.
3b. Gameboy launched GBP and GBC plus killer app Pokemon relatively late in its life cycle.
3c. DS was more of a soft-launch, and saw the release of the improved DS Lite and New Super Mario Bros later on.
3d. Switch saw an increase in sales following Animal Crossing NH, a surprise killer app, but sales were naturally accelerating already going into 2020.
3e. Note: technically Switch is a bit later than DS since DS's third year was almost on par with its 4th year selling only 100K less, while Switch's 4th year is about 35% ahead selling 7M more.
4. Nintendo Switch is looking like it will sell 27 million units in 2020 making it the second highest selling dedicated console of all time in a given year - only exceeded by the DS which sold 29.5 and 29.6 million respectively in 2007 and 2008. (note, fiscal shipments according to Nintendo are 30.4 million and 31.2 million for the years ending March 2008 and 2009). For comparison's sake in the home console sphere, the PS4 peaked at 19.8M, the PS2 and Wii at 24M sales a piece.
5. Hybrid systems are becoming very popular
5a. Macbook Pro is generally used as a hybrid notebook already and the three tiers rank 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on MacOS devices (Macbook Air eeks out #1).
5b. The current top selling console, the Nintendo Switch, is, of course, a Hybrid - even if you remove the Switch Lite form factor.
EFFECTS/PREDICTIONS
1. Over the next few years, ARM chips will exceed high end CISC chips.
2. Portable devices will run comparatively to home consoles and desktop PCs.
3. Microsoft will announce a Switch-like Hybrid console by 2026.
4. All console manufacturers will develop multi-form-factor consoles - not shocking, PC has done this for decades, and smart devices for 15 years.
5. Multiform factor console platforms will be normal for all major companies before 2030 (already is in iOS, Android, Linux, MacOS, Windows)
6. Hybrid consoles will be the dominant form factor for consoles and PCs somewhere between 2023 and 2030.
7. This is the last X86 generation of home consoles.
Here are a few related videos:
A simple review on Macbook M1 Air to give a bit of an idea on the giant leap over Intel.
Nvidia CEO talks about their merger with ARM
ColdFusion futurist Vlog discusses ARM and Apple's move to M1
And while the Switch stuff is relevant, I think there's nothing new I can really post here... yet. Nintendo has their quarterly financials in about 3 weeks where they'll release official shipment numbers for the 3rd quarter ending December 31st - and perhaps a bit of fanfare since sales tracking sites have put the Switch about 50% ahead of PS5, XBS, PS4, XBone, and 3DS combined every week of December.
CAUSES - Negative Factors
1. The dedicated handheld market saw an incredible decline in the last generation with the 3DS and Vita.
2. Home consoles have been declining since about 2008.
3. Japan, which is still main producer of dedicated console games has seen its own home console industry come to an abrupt end with both PS5 and XBS bombing.
3a. PS5 sales have been declining week over week in Japan. The week ending January 3rd saw only 10,632 units sold, while Nintendo Switch sales were 312,121 - about 30 times higher.
4. Traditionally home console based X86 CISC architecture is slowing down.
CAUSES - Positive Factors
1. Advancement in ARM architecture is accelerating while CISC is slowing down.
2. Nintendo, Apple, and Nvidia have all moved to focus on ARM architecture.
2a. Nintendo dropped Power PC for ARM.
2b. Apple dropped Intel and will transition to fully ARM based processors in 2 years.
2c. Nvidia purchased the ARM company for 40 billion dollars.
3. ARM doesn't suffer from the same physics limitations as X86 since the chips run much cooler.
3a. Apple's 32 core M1 chip running in a Macbook Air runs cool without a fan near peak performance - even though the CPU is a 3.2 GHz eight-core.
4. ARM is advancing much more quickly than anything else.
5. CPU ARM cores are already exceeding CISC cores.
6. The world's most powerful supercomputer, by a very distant lead, is ARM-based. It is three times more powerful than the current runner-up (this a fact of interest rather than an actual cause).
OBSERVATIONS
1. Nintendo's Switch has exceeded the commercial performance of 3DS+Wii U, and PS4+Vita across the same timeframe.
2. People who use Switch as a family home console are more likely to buy more of them for personal-portable usage, increasing market share and overall lifespan.
3. Switch's 4th year is its highest yet, tied with the DS and only exceeded by the NES and Gameboy which also have reasons - all three have unique reasons.
3a. The NES (1983) availability was limited to certain cities until 1988 in North America and 1990 in Europe.
3b. Gameboy launched GBP and GBC plus killer app Pokemon relatively late in its life cycle.
3c. DS was more of a soft-launch, and saw the release of the improved DS Lite and New Super Mario Bros later on.
3d. Switch saw an increase in sales following Animal Crossing NH, a surprise killer app, but sales were naturally accelerating already going into 2020.
3e. Note: technically Switch is a bit later than DS since DS's third year was almost on par with its 4th year selling only 100K less, while Switch's 4th year is about 35% ahead selling 7M more.
4. Nintendo Switch is looking like it will sell 27 million units in 2020 making it the second highest selling dedicated console of all time in a given year - only exceeded by the DS which sold 29.5 and 29.6 million respectively in 2007 and 2008. (note, fiscal shipments according to Nintendo are 30.4 million and 31.2 million for the years ending March 2008 and 2009). For comparison's sake in the home console sphere, the PS4 peaked at 19.8M, the PS2 and Wii at 24M sales a piece.
5. Hybrid systems are becoming very popular
5a. Macbook Pro is generally used as a hybrid notebook already and the three tiers rank 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on MacOS devices (Macbook Air eeks out #1).
5b. The current top selling console, the Nintendo Switch, is, of course, a Hybrid - even if you remove the Switch Lite form factor.
EFFECTS/PREDICTIONS
1. Over the next few years, ARM chips will exceed high end CISC chips.
2. Portable devices will run comparatively to home consoles and desktop PCs.
3. Microsoft will announce a Switch-like Hybrid console by 2026.
4. All console manufacturers will develop multi-form-factor consoles - not shocking, PC has done this for decades, and smart devices for 15 years.
5. Multiform factor console platforms will be normal for all major companies before 2030 (already is in iOS, Android, Linux, MacOS, Windows)
6. Hybrid consoles will be the dominant form factor for consoles and PCs somewhere between 2023 and 2030.
7. This is the last X86 generation of home consoles.
Here are a few related videos:
A simple review on Macbook M1 Air to give a bit of an idea on the giant leap over Intel.
Nvidia CEO talks about their merger with ARM
ColdFusion futurist Vlog discusses ARM and Apple's move to M1
And while the Switch stuff is relevant, I think there's nothing new I can really post here... yet. Nintendo has their quarterly financials in about 3 weeks where they'll release official shipment numbers for the 3rd quarter ending December 31st - and perhaps a bit of fanfare since sales tracking sites have put the Switch about 50% ahead of PS5, XBS, PS4, XBone, and 3DS combined every week of December.
