The Shrine

Well, 139.36 million as of December 31st, but given they're expecting about 1.73m this quarter, it's likely passed the 140 million by now. Nintendo upped their fiscal forecast from 15 million to 15.5 million for the year. Switch sales for years now have steadily decreased about 18% year over year from their peak back in 2020, which is quite a shallow downward curve when compared to most other video game consoles (aside from the freak shows that were Gameboy and NES, thanks to their staggered releases and late coming killer applications like Pokemon).
The DS and PS5 have sold 154 million and 158 million respectively. Given the current curve, the Switch should pass both these consoles in about 1.5 to 2 years.
There are a few uncertainties (that will probably occur) to consider that could alter the route. The first will probably negatively impact the Switch sales curve, but the other three would positively impact it.
1. Switch 2 is expected to be announced and released this year, as early as this summer. This could drastically increase the decline of the Switch 1 sales.
2. Switch has yet to see a price drop. This is still a major card that Nintendo has yet to play as price drops are associated with increases in sales, especially for popular consoles. Price drops helped consoles like NES, GBA, 3DS, and PS2 sell well beyond the release of their successors. The reason why other Nintendo home consoles have often not seen much in the way of sales beyond the end of the generation is because they either died before the end of the generation (as was the case with the N64, Gamecube, and Wii U), or Nintendo cut off support, features, marketing, and production (DS, Wii, SNES); all things unlikely to happen with the Switch because...
3. Switch 1 probably won't be abandoned as a console, but used as an entry level machine, maintaining the EShop platform and seeing the previous generation fully integrated as a foundation for the next generation - not just simple backward compatibility like the Wii mode on Wii U, or the cartridge slot along in the DS for older handheld games. Switch 2 will probably also maintain the same game card slot. Given this, it means people who want to replace old Switch hardware, split off of a family console with their own Switch, or people who have yet to buy a Switch, are all potential customers since the majority of customers don't buy consoles in their first 2 years.
4. With five first party games slated for 2024 (in an era where Nintendo usually announces no more than 6 months out), Nintendo still seems to be supporting the Switch, and this support will likely continue longer and include cross generation games. Paper Mario game, Donkey Kong, Princess Peach, Luigi's Mansion, and Another Code; and likely another 5-8 games unannounced, since Nintendo tends to hold their announcements close to the chest these days.

When compared to the Wii:
1. The Wii U launched in November 2012.
2. The Wii received its first and biggest price drop in 2009, and this was followed by the consoles biggest quarterly sales (the 2009 Christmas season).
3. The Wii also began ramping down services and shows in 2011 through to March 2012 (when shows like Nintendo Week and various channels were cancelled).
4. Skyward Sword in 2011 was Wii's last real first party release, as Nintendo only released a Kirby collection and Mario Party 9 in 2012 for the Wii. Mario Party 9 released March 2nd 2012, around 8 months before the Wii U came out, and also about the same time the much diminished Nintendo Week had its last episode.
Effectively, Nintendo shut the Wii down between December 2011 and March 2012, but the ramp down in virtual console releases and such began even earlier than that, there is no ramp down on Switch so far.

Despite the Wii's effective end between 8-12 months before the Wii U's release (I say 8 months, because it was ab , the Wii still managed to sell over 5 million units after the Wii U released. The Wii was also a notoriously front heavy console in terms of sales, but in 2012, it was beginning its seventh year on the market. If the Switch 2 released tomorrow, the Switch still only needs to sell less than 4X what the Wii sold after the Wii U release to beat the PS2.

Other highlights:
* Switch sold 206 million retail level software titles, increasing the total to 1.2 billion software sales as of December 31st 2023.
* Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has surpassed 60 million units.
* Animal Crossing: New Horizons hit 45 million.
* Nine games in total have sold over 20 million.
* The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom combined have sold 52 million units on Switch.

Switch 2 later this year apparently too. I wonder what they'll launch with since Tears of the Kingdom just came out.

In my opinion, full backwards compatibility is the best case scenario - that is full integration of Switch 1 software into the Switch 2 platform.

Usually when it comes to software, for new resolution standards and such, older software won’t display quite as well: black boxes and such - we saw this with the GBA to DS. But there are a lot of solutions to this, Switch 2 might have a global setting that functions for every piece of Switch 1 software - or they’ll just do what mobile platform holders used to do and get them to make a simple porting update - back pre-iPhone, when phones were all over the place, mobile devs had to target the top 40 of JAVA 2 Micro Edition device types, and the top 20 for BREW, and then work their way down from there). It was usually a fairly simple port. So, a little simpler than that.

Anyway, to answer the question: I think Tears of the Kingdom owners will be welcomed with an update to their game if/when they get the Switch 2.

Explanation: People have said “but what’s the business goal? Nintendo won’t make money off of that” - which is nonsense, as leveraging the Switch library will allow developers to keep producing software for the existing Switch and its 140 million+ userbase while also having access to the growing Switch 2 userbase - treating them as the same ecosystem. This works for third parties as well as Nintendo’s software departments, which are the real money makers. Nintendo’s continued support of Switch 1 right to the end (and likely beyond) has translated into a lot of money for the first three quarters of fiscal year 2024, and a lot of market growth. The biggest issue with the Wii and DS was that they killed support, for the Wii it was around a year before the Wii U came out - Skyward Sword in 2011 was the last in-house Nintendo software released, and all of 2012 only saw a Kirby collection and Mario Party 9 (in March). Also, in March they had winded down a number of services and shows, killing them during that month. So, when Wii U came out in November of 2012, the Wii had been dead for 9-12 months, depending on how you look at it. Artificially killing the Wii right after the DS significantly damaged Nintendo’s income, profits, and stock value. So, in my opinion, continuing to leverage Switch 1 with the same software as Switch 2 (Switch 2 playing the superior version of that software) is the best way to sell software, and therefore keep the billions in profits flowing in.

Switch 2 delayed to next year.

Tears of the Kingdom on fresh hardware with a facelift would be nice, but a Mario Odyssey sequel has to be at launch for this thing yeah?

I think this delay basically ensures Switch will pass DS and PS2, and probably by a fair margin. This is assuming Nintendo is planning to release Switch 2 as an expansion of the ecosystem rather than burning down the Switch to clear the way for the successor. Considering Nintendo seems to be continuing support, it looks like the former.

I'd probably say another 12-12.5 million (that's a 20% decline, which is what has been happening each year) in 2024, then 12.5-25 million between 2025 and 2030 (that's with a 50% drop annually, which is about what happens with most Nintendo consoles after the launch of new hardware with some wiggle room for higher sales from a price drops and continued support, and the idea that Switch 1 could be an entry level into the ecosystem). Or about 165-177.5 million units lifetime.

Switch sold 2.1 million units in Q1 (Year 8 of its lifecycle) bringing it up to 143.5 million. Q1 is traditionally the lowest selling quarter for consoles - except last year on Switch when Tears of the Kingdom released it was the second highest.

By comparison, year 8, the PS3 sold 3.1 million and Nintendo DS sold 2.35 million, except for the entire year. Given Q1 is usually about 17-18% total sales, Switch will probably do somewhere around 11.5-12m sales for the year.

2025 has a much talked about game releasing, Metroid Prime 4, but I expect it’s not going to be as big a seller as the chatter indicates. It seems like Metroid fans comprise mainly the loudest and most active Internet users, and not too many others. They likely already have Switches as well. So, end of the year the Switch should be about 152 million, and maybe 160 by the end of 2025.

The biggest new release was Paper Mario Thousand Doors - another one of those games that its very active and loud fans makes it look like one of the most popular games Nintendo ever released, but at 1.7 million sales, it is one of the lowest selling ports/remakes in Nintendo’s history, and in fact it sold just barely more than Princess Peach Showtime - compared to the Super Mario RPG simple remake, 3.14 million in its first Q showing which brand and game is in fact the bigger.

Mario Kart 8 and Animal Crossing marginally extend their lead selling another 1 million and 500K each for the quarter. 30.6 pieces of software total, which is way down from last years 52 million (which is the record for Q1 on Switch, again, Zelda), but still not too shabby as it’s still the 5th best year of 8. The only console that did better than Switch this late in its lifespan was the original Gameboy which had a killer app release and a hardware update around this time. Switch has already long surpassed the Gameboy total, just about 75% of Gameboy sales came between year 8 and 11 of its existence, about as close to sleeper hit of a game system as there ever was.